Bergman & Beving: Leveranserna återupptagna efter IT-angrepp hos dotterbolaget Lunas externa logistikleverantör

Bergman & Beving (Hold, TP: SEK250.00) - Down to HOLD after revaluatio...

The Q4 report showed weak growth, but a solid profit margin and FCF generation. We have marginally revised our forecasts for 2024/25-2026/67e, following the results. After a solid share price performance and substantial expansion of valuation multiples, we find the risk/reward more neutral. We have downgraded to HOLD (BUY), with an increased target price of SEK250 (200), owing to our new 2026/27e valuation base, which suggests less near-term revaluation potential.

Bergman & Beving (Buy, TP: SEK200.00) - New target ‘500/10/45’ by 2025...

The Q3 report showed stronger profit margins and FCF generation, which we believe allows for a continued acquisition focus (six deals YTD), offsetting weaker demand indicators and FX. We have raised our 2023/24–2025/26e EPS by 4–7%. We see potential in the ‘focus model’ to reach a 10% EBIT margin and EBIT of SEK500m by 2025/26 and P/working capital of 45% by 2026/27, now in our value gap analysis. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK200 (170).

Bergman & Beving (Buy, TP: SEK170.00) - Strong Q2 execution

The Q2 report showed strengthening profit margins and FCF generation, which we believe allows for a continued acquisition focus (four deals YTD), offsetting weaker demand indicators and FX. We have raised our 2023/24–2025/26e EPS by 1–4%. We see potential in the ‘focus model’ to grow EBIT to SEK500m by 2025/26, highlighting value creation from internal efficiencies and acquisitions, similar to our value gap analysis. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK170 (165).

Bergman & Beving (Buy, TP: SEK165.00) - Much-improved FCF generation

The Q1 report matched our expectations. We believe the much-improved FCF generation allows for a renewed acquisition focus (three deals YTD), partly offsetting weakening demand indicators and FX, leading us to do only minor 2023/24–2025/26e EPS cuts. We see potential in the CEO’s ‘focus-model’ approach and ambition to grow EBIT to SEK500m by 2025/26, highlighting possible value-creation from internal efficiency and acquisitions, similar to our value gap analysis. We reiterate our BUY and SEK165 ...

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