Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Operations and financials on track. Material newsflow over the upcoming 9 months
• The 3Q25 production and cash position at the end of September had been previously disclosed.• November production to date has averaged 24,537 bbl/d, exceeding the 3Q25 average of ~23 mbbl/d.
• The FY25 production guidance of 23-25.5 mbbl/d has been re-iterated.
• Valeura has completed a scheduled underwater survey of the sub-sea structural components. No anomalies were identified, reaffirming the facility’s integrity. Following redevelopment, production is expected to reach ~10 mbbl/d in 2H27 (as previously indicated).
• Over the next nine months, significant operational milestones are expected. Activities have begun in Turkey with the re-entry of Devepinar-1. Hydraulic stimulation and testing of the shallower Kesan formation are in advanced planning, with operations targeted for December. A 2018 reserves audit estimated unconventional prospective resources of ~20 tcfe of gas across the licences.
• Valeura will release its YE25 reserve report in 1Q26. Continued reserve additions are anticipated following the 2025 drilling programme. At Nong Yao, newly encountered reservoirs could extend the economic life of the field. At Jasmine/Ban Yen, the company reported similar drilling success in May. At Manora, the A35 and A36 appraisal wells were confirmed in March to have derisked 3-5 potential future drilling targets.
• Development planning in block G3/65 based has started based on the 2025 gas discovery and historic finds. A final investment decision is expected in 2026. While details remain limited, this project could further strengthen Valeura’s reserve base.
• We re-iterate our target price of C$12.70/share.
Valuation
Our Core NAV and ReNAV for Valeura are ~C$10.00/sh and C$12.52/sh respectively. We forecast that the company’s YE25 net cash will represent in excess of 55% of Valeura’s current market cap.
Valeura Energy is engaged in the exploration, development and production of petroleum and natural gas in Turkey and Western Canada. As of Dec 31 2010, proven gross reserves for light and medium oil was 116 thousand barrels (net reserves of 104 thousand barrels); proven gross reserves for heavy oil was 10 thousand barrels (net reserves of 9 thousand barrels); proven gross reserves for natural gas was 1,047 million cubic feet (net reserves of 938 million cubic feet); and proven gross reserves for natural gas liquids was 26 thousand barrels (net reserves of 19 thousand barrels).
Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector.
The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy.
Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors.
Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.
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