Norway: Best ideas Q4'24

AF Gruppen ASA: 1 director

A director at AF Gruppen ASA sold 40,000 shares at 134.000NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 57/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showing Close periods where trading activity is restricted under listing rules. The names of boar...

Peab (Hold, TP: SEK80.00) - JV accounting gains

We have increased our 2024e EPS by 26% on the announced gain of SEK0.4bn in Q4 following the deal with Balder to break up the Centur JV. Despite the Q4 transactional gain in Property Development (PD), we continue to see downside risk to consensus on bullish EPS expectations longer-term. We reiterate our HOLD, finding a better risk/reward in peers, but have raised our target price to SEK80 (76) on updated peer valuations.

Namibia uncertainty with Shell write-down

Shell is reportedly due to make a write-down in Namibia as discoveries are estimated to be commercially unavailable. Shell has been among the most active oil companies in Namibia, with five discoveries announced, and there have been expectations for future developments. Hence, we see the write-down as a setback for future development activity (which consumes more oil services volumes than exploration). As Total has appeared more optimistic on future developments in Namibia in the past, this setback (seemingly due to weak geology) is likely to increase focus on Total’s comments related to the p...

Ncc (Buy, TP: SEK190.00) - Two divestments for SEK5.8bn

NCC recently announced two divestments of commercial real estate developments for SEK5.8bn, of which SEK2.2bn will be recorded in Q4 2024 and SEK3.6bn in Q2 2028e when the development is delivered to the client. Hence, we have raised our 2024e EPS by c14.5% (and are above consensus for Q4e). We reiterate our BUY and SEK190 target price.