Solvay Model update following lowered FY25 underlying EBITDA guidance
Solvay has cut its FY25 underlying EBITDA guidance from a € 1.0-1.05bn range to € 880-930m (c. -12% at midpoint), citing soft demand in a context of tariff and geopolitical uncertainty. Solvay maintains FCF guidance of c. € 300m (on the back of more prudent capex spending) which however means that almost all FCF is absorbed to pay the high and committed dividend of € 2.43 per share. On the attractive valuation and dividend yield (of c. 8%), we maintain our Accumulate rating whilst lowering our target price from € 38 to € 36.Solvay is engaged in chemical and plastic businesses worldwide. Co. offers chemical products such as advanced materials, barium strontium, calcium chloride, caustic soda, chlorinated products, fluor, peroxygen products, polyglycerols, precipitated calcium carbonate, soda ash, and sodium bicarbonate. It also provides specialty polymers, such as Spire ultra polymers, Solviva biomaterials, and sulfone polymers. Co. structures its activities around five operating segments: Advanced Formulations, Advanced Materials, Performance Chemicals, Functional Polymers and Corporate & Business Services, each with its own specific business model and each comprised of Global Business Units (GBUs).
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