Bible 1Q25 - Smartphones: 2025 weak and front-loaded? Rest of the year is at risk, including for the iPhone.
Dear all,
Today, we are publishing the Smartphones section of our 27th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. In the coming weeks we will publish sections on Automotive, Memory, Hyperscale & Cloud, Telecom Equipment, Industrials, PCs, Enterprise IT, Ride sharing & Delivery, Foundry, and Semicap Equipment.
Shipments were strong, but multiple signals suggest 2025 smartphone demand may be front-loaded, including accelerated production, pulled-in shipments, and stimulated China demand. iPhone shipments rose 10% YoY, 15% above consensus, per industry analysts. Consensus still underestimates the shift to lower-end iPhones in China and widespread pull-ins cited by analysts, though not acknowledged by management. Semi revenue forecasts were revised up again for 2025/26, now implying high-single to low-teens growth, raising the risk of negative surprises if unit demand weakens in 2H.
Bible 1Q25 - Smartphones: 2025 weak and front-loaded? Rest of the year is at risk, including for the iPhone.
Pierre.
Apple designs, manufactures and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related services. The company's products include: iPhone; Mac; iPad; and wearables, home and accessories, which includes AirPods?, Apple TV?, Apple Watch?, Beats? products, HomePod?, iPod touch? and other Apple-branded and third-party accessories. The company's services include: digital content stores and streaming services; AppleCare, which includes AppleCare + (AC+) and the AppleCare Protection Plan; iCloud, which is the company's cloud service; licensing; and other services, which include Apple Arcade?, Apple Card?, Apple News+, and Apple Pay, a cashless payment service.
Soitec is a manufacturer of silicon and integrated circuits. Co. offers products based on Silicon-on-Insulator (SOI), which serves to support the manufacturing of more energy-efficient integrated circuits. Co.'s operations can be divided into three divisions: Electronics, Solar Energy and Lighting. The Electronics division manufactures and sells substrates and components intended for the microelectronics industry; the Solar Energy division manufactures and sells photovoltaic modules, designs and constructs turnkey projects, and operates photovoltaic power plants; and the Lighting division isolates resources to develop materials designed for the production of light emitting diodes.
Provided by our team of experienced analysts, our work is idea driven, based on independence of thought, sector expertise, and firmly focussed on fundamentals and valuation.
New Street Research is an independent, partner-owned, research firm specialising in equity and debt research. Our equity research embraces the following sectors:
- Pan European Telecom Services and Cable
- US Telecoms, Cable, Satellite and Towers
- Global Emerging Market Telecoms
- Japan Telecoms
- Asian Internet
- Pan European Healthcare
- Global healthcare thematic research
We provide debt research on:
- Pan European Telecom Services and Cable
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