EUR 42.46 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Upgrading Financials and Consumer Discretionary

We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on the S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week (11/19/25-11/25/25) when we flipped to neutral. We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX, $580-$583 on QQQ, and $245 on IWM continue to hold. Market dynamics have mildly deteriorated, but it is nothing abnormal considering the broad market consolidation, and we believe last week's low of 6720 on SPX will likely be the low for the rest of 2025, and we would look for a rally into early-2026. Our intermediate-term bullish outlook has been in place since our 5/14/25 Compass. We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain constructive and the SPX is above 6200. SPX supports include 6690, 6480-6520, 6450, 6400-6410, 6340-6360, 6290, and 6200.

Minor Deterioration in Market Dynamics. Staples (XLP) display RS bottom potential and Bitcoin remains decisively bearish as it holds below $98,000. With that said, this small amount of deterioration in market dynamics is common amid a broader consolidation phase on SPX, QQQ, and IWM, and there are still plenty of overpowering risk-on dynamics (MOVE index at 4+ year lows, 10-yr Treasury yield below 4.20%, DXY below $100.80, SMH and XBI RS uptrends intact, etc.) that lead us to believe any pullback is likely to be a buying opportunity... see pages 2 & 9. We are also upgrading Financials (XLF) and Discretionary (XLY) to market weight.