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Fishery industry – Maintain profit growth momentum in 2026

• In 2026, the growth in NPAT-MI of the fisheries industry is expected to come from improving gross margin in the pangasius segment and production growth in the tilapia and shrimp segments. The estimated NPAT-MI of ANV/VHC/FMC expected to grow by 12%/10%/10%, respectively.
o In terms of the catfish industry, ANV owns the strongest growth momentum as the strategy of diversifying the pangasius market and boosting the consumption new tilapia segment. In contrast, VHC faces fierce competitive pressure from ANV itself in the US market, limiting the room for price increase and volume consumtion in the US. The growth of VHC's output will depend on the sales policy accompanied by the expansion of other markets besides the US.
o Regarding the shrimp industry, for FMC, growth in 2026 is mainly based on a 5% YoY increase in consumption volume with high increases from the EU and Japanese markets while the US market is expected to declin slightly by 8% due to international competitive pressure and high anti-dumping duties in the US.
• The gross margin of the pangasius segment in 2026 is expected to improve slightly by 1-2 pps YoY to 16%-18% depending on the business, thanks to the expected decrease in the selling price of raw pangasius by 1% and the price of soybean meal estimated to decrease by 4%, the price of fingerlings is estimated to reach 55 thousand VND (+20% YoY) thanks to favorable weather restraining the increase in fingerling prices. Meanwhile, the selling price of pangasius is expected to increased slightly by 3% YoY due to the impact of the USD/VND exchange rate increasing by 3% YoY.
• The gross margin of the tilapia segment is estimated to decline by 3 pps YoY to 35% due to an 8% decline in tilapia selling prices, reaching $5.14/kg while raw tilapia prices are expected to decline slightly by 3% YoY thanks to a 4% decrease in soybean meal prices and favorable weather.
• FMC's shrimp segment margin is expected to improve slightly by 1 pps YoY to 14% thanks to the influence of the USD/VND exchange rate and a slight decline in raw shrimp prices by 0.4% when the weather is favorable.
• The forecast decline in the WCI transport index by 5-10% will be a direct support factor for the net profit of ANV and FMC, which mainly export under DAP and CFR conditions.