AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 02.06.2026
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS________________________________________
ADX Energy Exploration (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.20 per share: Momentum accelerating. Potential resources increase in Austria – The Welchau‑1 well is scheduled for re‑entry in February to test the Reifling reservoir. An acid stimulation will be performed on the perforated interval to address wellbore damage and improve productivity in the carbonate section. The operation should also yield additional insight into the deeper Welchau Deep gas prospect and a potential up‑dip oil accumulation. Further drilling could occur during the 2026/27 winter season. Drilling at the HOCH‑1 shallow prospect is expected to begin in March, followed sequentially by the GOLD‑1 and SCHOE‑1 wells. The SGB‑1 oil prospect in the Anshof area is planned for drilling in 4Q26.
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ADX Energy Exploration (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.20 per share: Adding materiality to Welchau – The continuous hydrocarbon shows and light oil recovered at Welchau‑1 indicate the presence of a light‑oil system within the broader Welchau anticline as well as a deeper gas condensate system in pressure communication with the historic Molln-1 gas discovery. The latest mapping indicates the crest of Welchau structure is 500 m updip of Welchau-1 which ADX estimates to contain 11.7 mmbbl of P50 prospective resources (Pmean of 17.7 mmbbl). The latest mapping also indicates the Welchau gas‑condensate objective, which carries P50–Pmean prospective resources of 65.4–125.4 bcf (unchanged) is now mapped to be considerably shallower (~ 600 m below Welchau TD) than previously expected and easily accessible by deepening the well. Importantly pressure data indicates Welchau-1 is in pressure communication with the deeper Molln-1 well which tested gas at 3.7 mmcf/d (Welchau Deep is actually an updip Molln appraisal). ADX now has two re‑entry options: either sidetrack to test the up‑dip oil target or deepen the current wellbore to appraise the gas condensate. Each prospect carries an estimated unrisked value of A$0.15–0.16/sh.
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Sintana Energy (SEI LN/CN)C; Target price of C$1.55 per share: Resolution of Colombia arbitration with ExxonMobil bolsters the balance sheet – Sintana has reached a settlement with ExxonMobil regarding the arbitration related to the VMM‑37 block in Colombia. Under the agreement, Sintana will receive a total of US$9 mm in cash, including an initial US$3 mm payment due within 60 days of execution (we assume receipt in April). The remaining US$6 mm payment is contingent on regulatory approval in Colombia. For modelling purposes, we assume this will be received in 4Q26. This settlement meaningfully strengthens Sintana’s balance sheet, providing sufficient liquidity to fund its share of drilling costs for the deep‑water well at PEL‑90 with Chevron near year‑end 2026. We had already assigned a risked value of approximately US$13 mm to VMM‑37 in our upside case.
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Vaalco Energy (EGY US/LN)C; Target price of US$10 per share: Recycling capital into highest return projects–Vaalco has agreed to divest its Canadian producing assets for US$25.6 mm, effective 1 February 2026. Although the price is below our expectations, the Canadian portfolio is non‑core. In the context of (1) growing resource potential in Egypt following the successful H‑field exploration well in the Eastern Desert, and (2) the capital requirements associated with developing the Equatorial Guinea assets—where we estimate total project capex at approximately US$350 mm—we view the decision to recycle capital into higher‑impact projects as strategically sound. With Canadian natural‑gas prices depressed, the transaction values the assets at 2.7× trailing 12‑month operating cash flow and roughly 4× our forecast 2026 free cash flow. Importantly, the sale does not affect the company’s borrowing base. The Canadian business also consumes management bandwidth and sits outside Vaalco’s strategic geographic focus. In January, Vaalco confirmed that the Baobab FPSO remained on schedule to depart the Dubai dry dock in early February for its return to Côte d’Ivoire. With departure now likely imminent and production restart only 4–5 months away, the overall risk profile of the business has improved. The investment case continues to centre on a fully funded doubling of production while maintaining a robust dividend (currently yielding ~4.8%).
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IN OTHER NEWS
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AMERICAS
Alvopetro Energy (ALV CN): Operating update in Brazil and Canada – Sales volumes in January averaged 3,099 boe/d including 2,908 boe/d in Brazil.
Equinor (EQNR NO): Selling assets in Argentina – Equinor is selling its entire onshore position in the Vaca Muerta basin to Vista Energy. This includes a 30% WI in Bandurria Sur and a 50% WI in Bajo del Toro. Equinor’s share of the Bandurria Sur production averaged 24,400 boe/d in 3Q25. Bajo del Toro, which is still in an early development phase, contributed 2,100 boe/d. The total consideration is valued at ~US$1.2 bn. At closing, Equinor will receive an upfront cash payment of US$550 mm as well as US$325 mm in Vista shares and future payments of US$225 mm, with contingent payments linked to production and oil prices over a five-year period. Vista will subsequently assign a 4.9% WI in Bandurria Sur and a 15.0% WI in Bajo del Toro to YPF.
Galp Energia (GALP LI): Operating update – 4Q25 production in Brazil was 110 mbbl/d.
Shell (SHEL LN): Selling asset in Brazil – Shell is selling 20% WI in Orca to Kufpec. Orca is estimated to hold 370 mmbbl prospective resources (oil).
ASIA AND AUSTRALASIA
Jadestone Energy (JSE LN): Trading update – FY25 WI production in Australia, Malaysia and Indonesia was 19,829 boe/d. YE25 net debt was US$89 mm.
EUROPE
BlueNord (BNOR NO): Operating update in Denmark – Net production in January was 43.1 mboe/d including 22.4 mboe/d at Tyra.
Equinor (EQNR NO): 4Q25 results – 4Q25 adjusted net income was U$2.0 bn with 2,198 mboe/d production. FY26 production is expected to increase by ~3% with US$13 bn capex. The organic capex outlook for 2026 and 2027 is reduced by US$4 bn, mainly within power and low carbon. The quarterly dividend per share has been increased from US$0.37 per share for 3Q25 to US$0.39 per share in 4Q25. The company has announced a US$1.5 bn share buyback programme for 2026.
Ithaca Energy (ITH LN): 4Q25 trading update in the UK – FY25 production was 119 mboe/d, at the bottom of the 119-125 mboe/d FY25 guidance. Production at YE25 was 148 mboe/d. YE25 2P reserves were estimated at over 350 mmoe. The company also holds over 300 mmboe in 2C contingent resources. Total cash distribution declared in 2025 amounted to US$500 mm.
NewMed Energy/OMV (OMV AG): Dry hole offshore Bulgaria – Media reports highlighted that the Vinekh prospect in the Black Sea was dry.
OKEA (OKEA NO): 4Q25 results – 4Q25 net production in Norway was 30.8 mboe/d. YE25 net cash was US$13 mm as there was an underlift of 10.4 mboe/d in 4Q25. FY26 production is expected to be 31-35 mboe/d with US$300-360 mm capex (unchanged). In 2027, the company expects to produce 37-41 mboe/d with US$230-290 mm capex.
OMV (OMV AG): 4Q25 results – 4Q25 adjusted net income was US$458 mm with 300 mboe/d production. FY26 production is expected to be “slightly below” 300 mboe/d with capex around EUR3.2 bn.
Shell (SHEL LN): 4Q25 results – Adjusted net income for the period was US$3.3 bn with 2,840 mboe/d production. YE25 proven reserves are estimated at 8.1 bnboe, implying a RRR of -40% for 2025.
FORMER SOVIET UNION
Nostrum Oil & Gas (NOG LN): Potential tax claim in Kazakhstan – Nostrum is engaged in disputes with Kazakhstan tax authorities with regards to 2018, 2019, and 2020 withholding tax payments. The tax authorities have asserted withholding tax claims for such three year period totalling ~USD 71 mm.
MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA
DNO (DNO NO): 4Q25 results – 4Q25 production in Kurdistan, Norway and Cote d’Ivoire had been reported previously. The company expects to grow proforma net production by 10% to 150 mboe/d from 2025 to 2026. This includes 82 mboe/d for Norway, 65 mboe/d for Kurdistan and the balance in West Africa. YE25 net debt was US$886 mm.
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Afentra (AET LN): Operating update in Angola – FY25 net production was 6,324 boe/d. YE25 net debt was US$21.8 mm. The 2026-2027 drilling programme is expected to add 3,750 bbl/d and targets 36 mmbbl resources and reserves. YE25 net 2P reserves were estimated at 31.9 mmbbl.
BW Energy (BWE NO): 4Q25 results. Acquisition of Angola asset pre-empted – 4Q25 production in Gabon and Brazil averaged 25.2 mboe/d. The company expects to produce 25-30 mboe/d in 2026 with US$500-600 mm capex. Production is expected to reach 90 mbbl/d in 2028. BW The existing joint venture partner in Block 14 and Block 14K in Angola has indicated the intention to exercise pre-emption rights in relation to the acquisition.
Orca Energy (ORC.A/B CN): Negative litigation outcome in Tanzania – An appeal judgement on the litigation with African Geophysical Services (AGS) has awarded AGS compensation for damages amounting to US$17.9 mm.
Savannah Energy (SAVE LN): FY25 operating update in Nigeria – FY25 gross production averaged 18.8 mboe/d (FY24: 23.1 mboe/d). YE25 net debt was US$656 mm including US$39.5 mm in cash (US$653 mm at the end of November including US$60 mm in cash). The YE25 trade receivable balance of US$507 mm was unchanged compared to the position at the end of November.
Alvopetro Energy is a resource company and is engaged in the exploration for, and the acquisition, development and production of, hydrocarbons in the Reconcavo, Tucano, Camamu-Almada and Sergipe-Alagoas basins in onshore Brazil. Co. develops producing hydrocarbons by appraising and developing existing discoveries and exploring in areas considered by management to be prospective for hydrocarbon resources. Co.'s assets consist of interests in three producing fields and 16 exploration blocks comprising 148,500 gross acres onshore Brazil.
DNO is a Norwegian exploration and production company focused on the Middle East and North Africa. Co. holds stakes in oil and gas blocks in various stages of exploration, development and production, both onshore and offshore, in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, Yemen, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Tunisia and Somaliland.
Equinor is engaged in oil and gas exploration and production activities. Co. is primarily focused on exploration, development and production of oil and gas on the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS). Co.'s operations are organized into four segments. The Development and Production Norway and Development and Production International segments explore, develop, produce and extract crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids. The Marketing, Processing and Renewable Energy segment markets, trades, transports and processes oil and natural gas and renewable energy. The Other segment consists of global well and project delivery, research and develpoment, and business development.
Jadestone Energy is engaged in the evaluation, acquisition, exploration and development of oil and gas properties.
Kosmos Energy is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company operates as a deepwater independent oil and gas exploration and production company focused along the Atlantic Margins. The company's assets include production offshore Ghana, Equatorial Guinea and U.S. Gulf of Mexico, as well as gas development offshore Mauritania and Senegal. The company also maintains a sustainable exploration program balanced between proven basin infrastructure-led exploration (Equatorial Guinea and U.S. Gulf of Mexico), emerging basins (Mauritania, Senegal and Suriname) and frontier basins (Cote d'Ivoire, Namibia and Sao Tome and Principe).
Okea ASA is a Norway-based oil company engaged in the oil and gas exploration and production industry. The Company contributes to the value creation on the Norwegian continental shelf with development and operation systems through the utilization of the result of previous and ongoing exploration activities in order to bring undeveloped oil on stream in strategic cooperation with service companies. Its services do not involve the exploration for petroleum. The Company operates an office in Trondheim, Norway.
OMV is an international energy company with activities in Exploration and Production (E&P), Refining and Marketing including petrochemicals (R&M), and Gas and Power (G&P). Co. explores and develops oil and gas resources and supply energy to over 100 million people. OMV has three operating segments: Exploration and Production (E&P), Refining and Marketing, including petrochemicals (R&M), and Gas and Power (G&P), as well as the segment Corporate and Other (Co&O).
Orca Exploration Group is an international company engaged in hydrocarbon exploration, development and supply of gas in Tanzania, the establishment of a coastal gas pipeline network in East Africa, oil appraisal and gas exploration in Italy and the acquisition of exploration opportunities in Europe and Africa.
Savannah Petroleum is an oil and gas company. Co.'s principal activity is the management of its investment in Savannah Petroleum 1 Limited (SP1). SP1's principal activity is the management of its investment in Savannah Petroleum 2 Limited (SP2), and the provision of services to other companies within Co. SP2 has a 95% interest in Savannah Petroleum Niger R1/R2 S.A. whose principal activity is the exploration of hydrocarbons in the Republic of Niger.
Sintana Energy is a development stage company engaged in oil and gas exploration and development activities in the United States.
Sterling Energy, together with its subsidiary is an upstream oil and gas company. Co. is an operator of exploration and production licenses, with a primary geographic focus on Africa. Co. is primarily focused on the development of its Somaliland Odewayne block, and Mauritania C-10 exploration block. Co. holds 40% working interest in the Somaliland Odewayne exploration block. This unexplored frontier acreage position comprises an area of 22,840 sq. km. Co. holds 13.5% working interest in the Mauritania C-10 exploration block. Block C-10 covers an area of approximately 8,025 sq. km. As of Dec 31 2016, Co. had a total proven plus probable oil reserves of 73,000 barrels of oil equivalent.
VAALCO Energy is an independent energy company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development and production of crude oil. The company is primarily engaged in its Etame Production Sharing Contract related to the Etame Marin block located offshore the Republic of Gabon in West Africa. The company also owns interests in an undeveloped block offshore Equatorial Guinea, West Africa.
Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector.
The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy.
Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors.
Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.
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