Condor Energies Inc. (TSX: CDR): Another positive operating update
• The work-overs of two new existing wells have added 441 boe/d after a combined 20 m of previously unperforated reservoir pay was accessed.• The first well is producing 410 boe/d. It was previously shut-in. The second well is producing an extra 31 boe/d (+65%) and continues to clean-up.
• With a total cost of 100 wells on Condor’s fields including 39 shut-in wells that could be candidates for work-overs. The recent programme has highlighted bypassed gas pay and new gas intervals. This could represent some upside to our estimates of 300 bcf recoverable resources.
• A second work-over rig will begin activities by early November to accelerate production ramp-up.
• The first made-in-Canada in-line flow separation system to separate water at the field gathering station is being installed. This is expected to lead to higher flow rates. A total of 13 flow separation systems could be installed.
• We continue to forecast 10.8 mboe/d in 4Q24 but this may be too conservative given the recent results. We forecast ~13 mboe/d in 1Q25 and 15.5 mboe/d in 4Q25.
• We re-iterate our target price of C$5.80/sh, in line with our ReNAV.
Valuation
Our ReNAV is ~C$5.70/sh, which continues to be validated in-part by the workover successes. The key source of upside is the Kazakh LNG project. Condor is expected to take FID on the first LNG plant at Alga in 1Q25. Our unrisked NAV for the first LNG plant at Alga is ~C$4.30 per share. The unrisked value of the second LNG plant at Kuryk adds ~C$4.20 per share. Overall, Condor believes there is the potential for 8 modular LNG plants in Kazakhstan.
Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector.
The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy.
Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors.
Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.
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