Condor Energies Inc. (TSX: CDR): Well results derisk the deeper clastic play. The horizontal leg could add 13-20 mmcf/d
• Condor’s inaugural well in Uzbekistan has intersected 28.5 meters of net gas pay within the productive carbonate reservoir; which in line with expectations. The company now plans to drill a 1,000-meter horizontal section through this interval, with results anticipated in November. IP rates are estimated between 13–20 mmcf/d, representing a potentially significant uplift in output. Current reserve estimates are based solely on vertical wells; transitioning to horizontal drilling is expected to positively impact the production plateau, reserve volumes, and NPV.• Additionally, the well encountered 9.1 meters of net gas pay in a deeper clastic reservoir, which currently carries no booked reserves. This discovery begins to unlock the potential of this previously untested zone.
• In the southern portion of Condor’s license, perforation of an 8-meter carbonate interval has increased output from a well in a small carbonate structure from 1.1 mmcf/d to an average of 6.2 mmcf/d over the past five months. This performance has effectively derisked a larger, up-dip underdeveloped structure—one of 18 new prospects identified through recently reprocessed 3D seismic data. Condor plans to mobilize a 2nd rig to drill a vertical confirmation well at the top of the structure, followed by multiple horizontal wells. A successful outcome would add reserves and enable a rapid scale-up in production.
• We maintain our forecast of production exceeding 17 mboe/d by 2026.
• Our target price remains unchanged at C$5.90/share.
Impact of 3D reprocessing on prospect imaging
Source: Company
Valuation
Our core NAV for Condor based on Uzbekistan alone is ~C$1.07 per share. This excludes any contribution from the new prospects identified on 3D seismic nor the Clastic resources. The unrisked NAV for the initial Saryozek’s 48,000 gallons/d LNG module remains at ~C$1.15/sh. The total unrisked value of Condor’s broader LNG portfolio exceeds C$8.00/sh, while our ReNAV remains unchanged at ~C$5.90/share.
Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector.
The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy.
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