Bryan Garnier - Novo Nordisk (novob) NOVO NORDISK: How much should we pay pipeline optionalities today? | NEUTRAL | DKK380 vs. DKK368

Report

Bryan Garnier

Eric Le Berrigaud

NOVO NORDISK: How much should we pay pipeline optionalities today? | NEUTRAL | DKK380 vs. DKK368

NOVO NORDISK - NEUTRAL | DKK380 vs. DKK368 (-13%)
How much should we pay pipeline optionalities today?

Novo Nordisk confirms that 2020 is â€œan investment yearâ€
True is that Ozempicâ€™s trajectory is impressive
Valid question about the value of the pipeline

06/02/2020 3 EN

Underlying

Novo Nordisk

See profile

Provider

Bryan Garnier

Since 1996, Bryan, Garnier & Co has been growing with an absolute conviction that the investment banking landscape would experience a major revolution: most of the large local generalist banking groups will disappear to the benefit of a handful of global powerhouses, and an emerging group of independent, highly specialised boutique investment banks.

See profile

Analysts

Eric Le Berrigaud

Other Reports on these Companies

New Street Research

Novo - Oversize Downgrade - PT Cut to DKK300 (SELL, TP DKK300 [350], 8pgs)

Whilst our downgrade to Sell [here] was predicated on reduced Ozempic sales & significantly below cons. forecasts, the magnitude of the ’25 profit warning has led to a material reset of our forecasts & we are now >30% below cons. EBIT in 2029. We expect the debate to now focus on valuation given we model just 5% 25-30 CAGR sales growth & sema accounts for 60% of 2030 EBIT. Worryingly, our EPS declines in 2027 having cut our sales forecasts by 4-9% & EBIT forecasts by 6%-13%. We are now 27% below 2027 cons. EPS (pre-warning). Given the lacklustre growth of both the diabetes & obesity markets, w...

EUR 4316.50

July 30, 2025 July 30, 2025 1 EN

New Street Research

Novo - Mounjaro Efficacy Slowing GLP-1 Growth (SELL, TP DKK350, 11pgs)

With US GLP-1 volume growth in diabetes stalling to just 5%, we examine the evidence that Mounjaro’s high efficacy has resulted in a surge of patients getting to HbA1c goal & discontinuing treatment. We analyse the literature & clinical data that shows that GLP-1 market growth could slow dramatically for years to come given Mounjaro is now half the US GLP-1 volume in diabetics. We expect Mounjaro’s NBRx share to be >70% by end 2026, likely resulting in further downgrades to Ozempic consensus. Based on our analysis, if CagriSema does switch diabetic patients away from Ozempic, the treatment dur...

EUR 4316.50

July 28, 2025 July 28, 2025 1 EN

New Street Research

Novo - Ozempic Outlook Worsening (SELL, TP DKK350, 26pgs)

US Ozempic scrips have continued to deteriorate, resulting in further downgrades to our estimates. We are 9% below US Ozempic cons. in 2025, 24% below in 2026 & 56% below by 2030. Were consensus to fall to our forecasts, we show this would reduce EPS by 4% this year and 15% from 2027 (assuming minimal cost savings). NRx is now declining, yet cons. assumes 3% H225 sales growth despite an expected >MSD price cut. The mid-point of guidance is at risk in our view given the deterioration in Ozempic momentum. In addition, post-ADA, we now see limited opportunity for Cagri & material risk from orfo’ ...

EUR 4316.50

July 3, 2025 July 3, 2025 1 EN

Median Technologies: EUR23.5m capital raise extends runway into Q4 2026

Median Technologies successfully secured a capital raise via ABSA of EUR23.5m in total gross proceeds, priced at EUR1.66 (at ~18% discount to 20-day VWAP). The offering was oversubscribed, surpassing the initial EUR22m target, with 64% backed by existing shareholders, 2% by a public offering in Fra

12h / 29m 12h / 29m 1 EN

Clément Genelot

Clément Genelot

Ceconomy: walking down the aisle with JD.com and a €4.6 offer

JD.com has presented its €4.6 cash bid with an acceptance period opening in Aug/Sep and delisting around Jun 2026. Support from strong anchor shareholders and a deal structured to avoid political scrutiny makes us more confident in the likelihood of it materialising. PT consequently aligned with th

August 1, 2025 August 1, 2025 1 EN

Aurelien Deside

Aurelien Deside

Planisware: wait-and-see environment triggers profit warning

Planisware has published a mostly unfavourable set of results, with Q2 revenues growing by just 8.1% at cc, 2.8% below the company-compiled consensus, due to the ongoing extension in decision cycles caused by general macro uncertainties. With limited visibility on any potential turnaround for H2, t

August 1, 2025 August 1, 2025 1 EN

Sign-up for free to access full reports immediately

Email Address*

Choose Password* ( 6 or more characters )

Due to regulatory restrictions regarding the distribution of financial research, this report is restricted to a specific region or investor type. Get access to exclusive reports by answering the questions below.

Select your country*

Get financial insights straight to your inbox

By clicking "register" you accept the Terms and Conditions & Privacy Policy

Already on ResearchPool?

Almost there...

Are you a professional investor?

Select your country

REGISTER

Create a free ResearchPool account to access full reports, get a personalised dashboard and follow providers or companies

In order to access this report please create an account.

LOGIN

NOVO NORDISK: How much should we pay pipeline optionalities today? | NEUTRAL | DKK380 vs. DKK368

Novo - Oversize Downgrade - PT Cut to DKK300 (SELL, TP DKK300 [350], 8pgs)

Novo - Mounjaro Efficacy Slowing GLP-1 Growth (SELL, TP DKK350, 11pgs)

Novo - Ozempic Outlook Worsening (SELL, TP DKK350, 26pgs)

Median Technologies: EUR23.5m capital raise extends runway into Q4 2026

Ceconomy: walking down the aisle with JD.com and a €4.6 offer

Planisware: wait-and-see environment triggers profit warning

Create a free ResearchPool account to access full reports, get a personalised dashboard and follow providers or companies

Sign-up for free to access full reports immediately

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Why subscribe?

How to subscribe

ResearchPool Subscriptions

This report is only available to subscribers

Why subscribe?

How to subscribe