MOL - Money does not stink..
We update our forecast to reflect the current commodity environment which led us
to increase MOL’s 12m-ex div. target price to HUF 3,000. MOL will generate record CCS
EBITDA of HUF 949 bn in 2021 on the back of skyrocketed petchem margin (1.7x st dev.
from 5yr. median), natural gas price (4.5x st. dev from 5yr median) and stable oil price,
which will moderate to HUF 882 bn as we see flattish crude price lower and petchem
margin (450 EUR/t vs 670 EUR/t). Share price implies 5x adj. P/E’21 (reported EPS should
be around 630, because of large inventory financial gains & low effective tax rate) and 5.7x
P/E’22 and 3.6x and 3.5 x EV/EBITDA for ’21 and ’22 respectively.
Magyar Olaj-Es Gazipari is an integrated oil and gas enterprise based in Hungary and active in central and eastern Europe. Co.'s core activities include: exploration and production of crude oil, natural gas and gas products; refining, transportation, storage and distribution of crude oil products in both retail and wholesale markets; importation, transportation, storage and wholesale trading of natural gas and other gas products; and the production and sale of olefins and polyolefins. TVK, the petrochemical affiliate of Co., is an olefin and polyolefin producer in Hungary.
Concorde Securities Ltd. is Hungary’s leading independent company engaged in investment banking activities. It provides its clients with integrated financial services, including securities trading, research, corporate financing advisory, capital market transactions, wealth management and investment advisory. The operational management of the company is the responsibility of the CEO, while the owners/managers (who control one-third of the company through their shares and options) are in charge of its strategic governance. Concorde Securities Ltd. is a member of the Budapest, Frankfurt, Warsaw and Bucharest stock exchanges, as well as of the Hungarian Association of Investment Service Providers.
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