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Northern Ireland: Shifting Demographics Do Not Necessarily Imply Higher Public Support for Irish Unification

DBRS Morningstar is of the view that the results of the 2021 census in Northern Ireland (NI) do not provide signals around the likelihood of a forthcoming border poll on Irish unification. While the census confirms the continuation of shifting demographics in NI, it does not by itself offer much insight to the societal preferences on the question of unification - which polling consistently shows the people of NI are still evenly split. On the difficult question of unification, we consider survey results to be more important than the census, and it is unlikely that UK authorities would allow for a referendum at least until the polling is more conclusive. A future scenario of unification could have credit implications for our ratings on the United Kingdom and Northern Ireland (AA (high), Stable) and the Republic of Ireland (AA (low), Stable). In this commentary, we assess key results from the recent census and the implications, if any, for Irish unification.

Key Highlights
-- In DBRS Morningstar's view, census results do not imply greater societal demands for Irish unification.
-- Census results show an increase in Irish identity, but also an increase in the population with no religion.
-- We consider survey results to be more relevant than the census in gauging preferences on unification.

“While the census confirms the continuation of shifting demographics in Northern Ireland, it does not by itself offer much insight to the societal preferences on the question of unification - which polling consistently shows the people of Northern Ireland are still evenly split”, said Jason Graffam, Vice President, Global Sovereign Ratings Group, DBRS Morningstar.