Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Q3 trading update: Volumes 18% above

Green Landscaping Group (Buy, TP: SEK100.00) - Q3e likely solid, but CMD in focus

We expect Green Landscaping to report a solid Q3, driven by organic revenue growth in Norway and Rest of Europe and easing comparables. We see Q3 as the trough for the Swedish business unit as it exits a loss-making contract. Despite a likely strong Q3e, we expect the results to be outshone by the recently announced CMD. We reiterate our BUY and SEK100 target price.

DOF Group (Buy, TP: NOK140.00) - Accretive fleet expansion

The proposed acquisition of Maersk Supply Service is set to position DOF as the market leader in CSVs and large AHTS vessels, giving increased scale in an increasingly sold-out subsea market at attractive terms (24% discount to GAV). We have included Maersk in our estimates, and consider the combined valuation attractive at a 2025e EV/EBITDA of 3.9x and annualised dividend yield of 14% from Q2 2025. We reinstate a recommendation with a BUY and NOK140 target price.

SSAB (Hold, TP: SEK55.00) - Market headwinds taking their toll

We have cut our 2024–2025e earnings again, mainly due to a more cautious view on steel prices in general but US plate in particular. While we remain confident in the longer-term outlook for earnings, dividends and transformational investments, we expect industry newsflow to remain negative at least until the end of the year, and are increasingly concerned about SSAB’s Q4 earnings. As a result, we have cut our target price to SEK55 (85) and downgraded to HOLD (BUY).