September: Pulp shipments -10% y-o-y

Elopak (Hold, TP: NOK45.00) - Uneventful Q3

Q3 EBITDA of EUR45m was in line with our estimate and consensus, but EPS of EUR0.06 disappointed due to higher-than-expected losses on financial instruments. We have edged up our 2025–2026e EPS by 1–2%, based on improved visibility on volume assumptions in the Americas. We forecast Q4 EBITDA of EUR47m and reiterate our HOLD and raise our target price to NOK45 (44).

It's not a sprint, it's a marathon

Oncopeptides (Buy, TP: SEK2.50) - Germany leads Q3 sales miss

Q3 sales were roughly half the level we expected – admittedly from a small base, but still a concern for us, since the miss was led by Germany, with much slower growth than recently. However, operating expenses were also less than we forecast, leaving an operating loss of SEK61m, a fraction better than our cSEK-63m. End-Q3 cash was SEK250m, which the company said would see it to positive cash flow in 2026e. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK2.5 (4.5) on increased uncertainty about the sales ramp up.

Norske Skog (Buy, TP: NOK32.00) - Unfounded concerns

Since the Q3 report that showed that Norske Skog is in good shape in difficult markets, the share price is down c40% on apparent concerns that Norske Skog will become financially distressed. However, after scrutinising the balance sheet and the debt payment structure, we believe the situation is under control. With our earnings forecasts largely intact, we have upgraded to BUY (HOLD) and reiterate our NOK32 target price following the recent share price weakness, in our view based on unfounded concerns and misunderstanding.

Valuation and market update

In this note, we show updated valuation and market statistics for the Offshore Drilling sector.