Report
Steffen Evjen
EUR 88.04 For Business Accounts Only

Equinor (Buy, TP: NOK420.00) - Consensus too optimistic for Q3e

We are c3% below consensus on adj. EBIT for Q3e, as consensus seems far too optimistic on Norwegian gas production in the quarter. Consensus implies 3% QOQ growth of EPN gas production, while our data suggests a 5–6% QOQ reduction is more likely. Thus, our EPN gas production estimate is 7% below consensus for Q3. As a result, we expect Equinor to reduce its 2023 production growth guidance. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK420 (370), as we now peg our valuation to 2024–2025e. Our target price implies a 2024–2025e P/E of ~7.0x on a normalised balance sheet, in line with its peer group.
Underlying
Equinor ASA

Equinor is engaged in oil and gas exploration and production activities. Co. is primarily focused on exploration, development and production of oil and gas on the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS). Co.'s operations are organized into four segments. The Development and Production Norway and Development and Production International segments explore, develop, produce and extract crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids. The Marketing, Processing and Renewable Energy segment markets, trades, transports and processes oil and natural gas and renewable energy. The Other segment consists of global well and project delivery, research and develpoment, and business development.

Provider
DnB Markets
DnB Markets

DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.

 

Analysts
Steffen Evjen

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