Golden Ocean (Sell, TP: NOK98.00) - A weaker 2025 on the horizon
We are well below consensus for 2025e, reflecting our negative view on dry bulk demand prospects based on China’s excessive raw material imports versus its fundamental demand. Also, as we near the seasonally slower start to the year, we see significant downside risk to freight rates, which already fail to support asset values. The current 1-year TC rate implies 22% downside potential to quotes for a 5-year-old Capesize on historical multiples (a 22% drop in values would shave NOK44 from our NOK146 NAV/share). Hence, we reiterate our SELL, but have raised our target price to NOK98 (95).
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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