Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK41.00) - Q1 beat, FDA approval of AAD
Robust Q1 sales growth of 15.4% YOY and lower R&D costs YOY (16.6% R&D-to-sales versus 22.4% last year) represented a strong start to the year. The FDA has approved Rexulti in Alzheimer’s agitation disease (AAD), and we expect a US launch in H2 with Lundbeck’s share of peak sales of USD562m in 2028e. Lundbeck kept its 2023 revenue guidance and introduced adj. EBITDA guidance of DKK5.1bn–5.4bn (we forecast DKK5.3bn). We reiterate our BUY and DKK41 target price.H. Lundbeck develops, produces and markets drugs for treating diseases of the central nervous system. Products include antidepressants for the treatment of depression, panic disorder, and prevention of relapse/recurrence. Antipsychotic products for psychotic disorders; schizophrenia, anxiety, restlessness and insomnia; treatment of psychotic disorders; acute psychotic episodes, exacerbation of psychotic disorders. Co.'s products inclue Cipralex®/Lexapro® for the treatment of depression and anxiety; Ebixa® for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease; Azilect® for the treatment of Parkinson's disease; Xenazine®, Sabril®, Saphris® Sycrest®, Onfi, and other.
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