Sagax (Sell, TP: SEK230.00) - Single-digit growth at 25x FFOPS
We believe the 9% (12-month rolling) growth in adj. PFPM in Q1 will be Sagax’s new normal in current macro environment (well below its 5-year average of 21%), as we estimate a 2023–2026 FFOPS CAGR of c8–9% in our M&A scenario. We see limited scope for a boost by increasing leverage given credit rating thresholds. In Q4 2024, growth was still 15%, and much of the sharp drop to 9% in Q1 was explained by a one-off gain in Q1 2023, meaning a tough comparable. We reiterate our SELL and SEK230 target price, based on a 2025e P/FFO of 18x.
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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