Yara (Buy, TP: NOK425.00) - Risk on the upside in 2025e
We expect Q4 EBITDA of USD562m (results due 08:00 CET on 7 February). We reiterate our BUY and NOK425 target price as we find Yara attractively valued at a 15-year low share price, despite normalised earnings. In our view the risk is on the upside, whether EU natural gas prices move lower or higher. We believe a clarification regarding the company’s capex plans for 2025 would also remove investor uncertainty. We have raised our 2024e EPS by 8% and 2025–2026e by c3%.Yara International is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. converts energy, natural minerals and nitrogen from the air into products for farmers and industrial customers. Co. provides mineral fertilizers, industrial products and environmental products and services to its customers. Its mineral fertilizer portfolio, sold as five main brands (YaraMila, YaraLiva, YaraVita, YaraBela, YaraVera) represents a range of crop nutrients. Its industrial portfolio contains a range of nitrogen chemicals as well as CO2 and dry ice. Its environmental product and services reduce NOx emissions, control unpleasant odor, prevent toxic gases, avoid corrosion and improve water quality.
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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