SIGA Technologies - Optimizing the TPOXX value proposition
SIGA’s Q124 results were marked by material BARDA and international TPOXX deliveries and highlighted the company’s strategic push towards international expansion, reflected in its revised deal terms with partner Meridian. Robust product revenues of $23.9m (not including $1.6m in R&D income) made up of high margin oral TPOXX deliveries (gross margin upwards of 85%), translated to strong operating profitability of $11.3m compared to an operating loss of $2.1m in Q123. We expect the remaining c $140m option from BARDA for TPOXX to be exercised this year. Despite the $43m dividend payout in April 2024, SIGA retains a healthy balance sheet (pro-forma, post-dividend cash of c $100m and no debt), which we expect will improve further in FY24 with anticipated product deliveries. Reflecting the Q124 results, dividend payout and adjustments to our near-term estimates (to capture the slight uncertainty in IV TPOXX deliveries), we readjust our valuation to $16.01/share ($16.51/share previously).SIGA Technologies is a commercial-stage pharmaceutical company focused on the health security market. Health security comprises countermeasures for biological, chemical, radiological and nuclear attacks, vaccines and therapies for emerging infectious diseases, and health preparedness. The company's primary product is an oral formulation of TPOXX?, an antiviral drug for the treatment of human smallpox disease caused by variola virus. The United States Food and Drug Administration has approved oral TPOXX? for the treatment of smallpox.
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