Heteronomics - UK preview: rising inflation and stable LFS

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Heteronomics

Philip Rush

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UK preview: rising inflation and stable LFS

- UK inflation looks likely to rise again in September on the CPI, RPI and PPI. I am in line with the consensus in forecasting CPI and RPI inflation of 3.0% and 4.0%. Transport drives the increase, with clothing slightly restraining my forecast rise. - The LFS unemployment rate has repeatedly surprised the consensus by declining for three consecutive months. However, I forecast it to hold at 4.3% amid neutral cohort effects. Meanwhile, wage growth looks likely to tick down a tenth to 2.0%.

13/10/2017 3 EN

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Heteronomics

Heteronomics provides UK-centric macro research. A hallmark attention to detail delivers a depth of analysis beyond what the sell side now delivers. Clients can also experience events that privately provide insights on these topics. Have a bespoke request for research or an event? Let us know. Clients can expect assistance with their own requirements to the extent it doesn't impinge upon other clients. Think of it as retaining an expert economist, without the large overhead.

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Analysts

Philip Rush

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UK preview: rising inflation and stable LFS

Riksbank: hopeful for vaccine dividend

BoE: preparing policy like a Scout

Italy: Dragging in Draghi

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