Macro Review-Macro Insight: Larger Financial Aid Buys More Time for Economy to Adjust
Ukraine’s economy has been in a sluggish recovery mode since 3Q24, and chances for a significant near-term acceleration are slim. The need to cut the fiscal deficit and budget expenditures will significantly restrain GDP growth going forward. We see economic growth close to 3% this year and next, supported by recovery in household consumption and higher agricultural output.
Inflation is set to start decelerating rapidly from June on last year’s high base and larger supply of agricultural harvest. We see good chances of consumer prices slowing to 7-8% at the end of 2025, supported by weaker...