In FICC (Fixed Income, commodities and Currencies) Research, we offer niche EM expertise, especially in EMEA. We are the go-to bank for Benelux issues, from regulations to rates to a Benelux credit focus. We have developed top notch covered bonds research, and have niche offerings in money markets, rate derivatives and European high yield. We overlay this with a global offering in macro, FX, commodities research and technical analysis. Europe is a key focus for us, but our global sphere extends to the Americas and Asia, in areas where we have selected DM & EM edges. Our analysts provide both written output and conference calls, but also travel the world to provide face-to-face presentations.
ING’s Equity Research team provides in-depth research on over 120 companies in the BeNeLux region, offering both breadth and depth of stock coverage. In addition to investment recommendations, our analysts offer thematic research, proprietary data points. insights into industry trends and unique valuation perspectives. ING’s Equity Research team was ranked the #1 Country Research team in the BeNeLux region in 2017 by the Extel Survey. Next to this, ING is the only bank to have been involved in all the BeNeLux IPOs in 2017. ING has the largest equities team focussed on Benelux listed securities and is the only Benelux broker with sales and research operations in both Amsterdam and Brussels and a sales hub in New York.
The CBT extends its easing cycle further but with a more measured move this time. It's in line with its ongoing priorities and a relatively supportive global backdrop and comes despite higher headline inflation and a less favourable FX environment
Buoyant stocks are keeping the Fed away from the rate cut trigger. As the Fed will not rush into a rate cut, any nCoV inspired build in a cut discount, will mean a richer 5yr. We like 2/5yr flatteners, longs 5's to the curve and receivers in 1yr forward space versus cash. The biggest risk to these strategies is a collapse in stocks, which could accelerate rate cut talk and re-steepen the curve.
In the CEE space, HUF continues outperforming as the Bubor rise (almost equal to two 25bp hikes since the start of 2020) sharply increased HUF funding costs. Adding to it the expected sharp decline in Hungarian CPI, this will meaningfully improve the HUF real rate. Coupled with the arguably still one-way short positioning, this points to a stable or stronger HUF in coming weeks, with EUR/HUF stabilizing around or below the 335 level. In contrast, the meaningfully overbought CZK started underperforming, with EUR/CZK back close to the 25.00 level. We expect EUR/CZK to stabilize around this level...
In Germany, the ZEW will be the first post-coronavirus indicator and is unlikely to budge the recent trend of unexciting (in many case disappointing) EZ data. This equally points to fairly unexciting EUR prospects and the continuation of EUR/USD downtrend as the mix of soft EZ data, the market pricing renewed ECB deposit rate cuts and attractive euro funding characteristics do not bode well for the currency. Breaking the EUR/USD 1.0800 level seems to be a question of when rather than if.
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