Flash update 16 October 2016
|
Global economy |
6 from 9 regime tests imply risk is on. (page 1) Taiwan trade, a proxy for global economic activity, remains in upward tradjectory. (page 2) |
|
Industrial production |
IP remains positive, surprising positively in Europe. (page 3) |
|
Business sentiment |
September’s rise cancels August’s fall. (page 4) |
|
Consumer sentiment |
Consumer sentiment remains rising. (page 5) |
|
US |
Small business sales expectations fell sharply, implying a risk-off regime for risky assets. (page 6) Consumer sentiment rose sharply. (page 7) Economic surprises are positive. (page 8) |
|
China |
Exports surprise positively. (page 9) Containerised freight index implies risk is off. (page 10) |
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Japan |
Machine tool orders rose sharply. (page 11) Economic expectations index implies risk remains on. (page 12) |
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Australia |
Regime tests based on NAB indicators imply risk is on. (page 13) |
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Risk |
Divorce between equities and fundamentals continues. (page 14) |
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Trivia |
The causality between rising minimum wage and destroying jobs is not rocket science. (page 15) |
Ineichen Research and Management ("IR&M") is a research firm focusing on investment themes related to absolute returns and risk management. IR&M was founded in 2009 and is an independent company, fully owned by Alexander Ineichen. IR&M is based near Zug, Switzerland, a healthy distance to the main epicentres of mainstream financial thinking. IR&M’s research is designed to improve its clients’ investment decision making. The basic premise is the idea that long-term success is dependent on survival and avoidance of large losses, i.e., the management of risk, not returns.
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