Report
Wim Lewi

DTPL - Not out of the Woods

Today we update our Dynamic Top Pick List :
• We ADD : TINC and We REMOVE : Ontex, Sipef (removed on 18/3)
• We KEEP Large Caps: AB Inbev, Ageas, Ahold Delhaize, ArgenX, ASML, bpost, D'Ieteren, Telenet, UCB and Umicore.
• We KEEP Mid Caps: Care Property Invest, EVS, Fugro, Intervest Offices and Warehouses, Kinepolis, Materialise and X-fab.

Performance: Since our previous update (3/2) our DTPL gained 4.3% as markets recovered at the end of the quarter. That is 2.5% above the average of our closest benchmarks, the AEX (-0.2%, Tech heavy) Bel20 (+4.4%) and Stoxx50 (-0.9%). The worst performers were Xfab (-6.7%) and bpost (-5.2%). The best performers were Small caps Fugro (+24.1%) and Argenx (+12.6%).

Our view: Since the start of the year, the market is discounting a higher risk on a recession over the next 2 years. We already had a defensive bias and have benefited from the risk-off trade. The Ukrainian conflict escalation has added to the uncertainty. On one hand inflation will increase by another factor, while central banks are dialling back the lush quantitative easing of the last 10 years. We do not know how long this conflict will last as it doesn’t make any sense to us. We have sandbagged our selection further with a defensive name : TINC. The upside to the target price is not the decisive factor, but the risk if we see the economic environment worsen further.

TINC Added: Despite the low upside to our target price and Accumulate rating, we add TINC to the DTPL as a candidate for relative outperformance vs. our benchmarks. The stock held up remarkable well during the 1Q22 market rout and is expected to repeat this feat if and when the markets look for a new bottom. TINC can accelerate its growth as Infrastructure investments are high on the agenda of governments. The energy transition specifically has become ever more pressing, not only to save the planet, but to kick our dependency on Russian Oil & Gas. It has defined an ESG roadmap and might over time issue a green bond . TINC’s investment approach is inspired by four significant societal trends: a low-carbon world, digitisation, building back better and care & wellbeing. The infrastructure asset class is protected by barriers to entry such as the complexity of ppp origination/financing. TINC is expected to provide a stable dividend, which grows year on year and is largely hedged against the current rampant inflation.

Ontex removed: Although we continue to believe Ontex will eventually be able to improve profit margins on the back of extensive savings & pricing initiatives, we decided to take Ontex from our DTPL list as short term headwinds persist in the form of additional raw materials and general inflation, which we believe will keep margins under pressure beyond 1Q. The volatile environment we are living in today is also not supportive for leveraged companies like Ontex.
Underlyings
AB Effectenbeteiligungen AG

AB Effectenbeteiligungen AG is an Austria-based company that invests in European companies. The Company is engaged in the investment in undervalued small-cap and micro-cap companies, in medium-sized companies with a growth potential, as well as in pre-initial public offering (IPO) companies. In the fiscal year ended on December 31, 2009, AB Effectenbeteiligungen AG's portfolio included Rhoen Kliniken AG, a Germany-based hospital operator, Realtime Technology AG, a Germany-based provider of visualization technologies and services for industrial applications in the automobile, aviation and consumer goods sectors and RIB Software AG, a Germany-based specialist in building construction, plant engineering and infrastructure management software.

Ageas SA/NV

Ageas is an insurance company engaged in providing a range of life and non-life products distributed through a variety of channels. Co. focuses on helping its customers to mitigate risks related to property, casualty, life and pensions. Co. serves its customers through a combination of wholly owned subsidiaries, equity associates and partnerships, with financial institutions and distributors in Belgium, the U.K., Luxembourg, Italy, Portugal, Turkey, France, China, Malaysia, India, Thailand and Hong Kong. Co. is organized into five operating segments: Belgium, U.K., Continental Europe, Asia, and General Account.

ArGEN-X SE

Argenx N.V. is a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing a deep pipeline of differentiated antibody-based therapies for the treatment of severe autoimmune diseases and cancer. Utilizing its suite of differentiated technologies, Co. is focused on developing product candidates with the potential to be either first-in-class against novel targets or best-in-class against known, but complex, targets in order to treat diseases with a significant unmet medical need.

ASML Holding NV

ASML Holding provides lithography systems for the semiconductor industry, manufacturing machines that are used in the production of integrated circuits or chips. Co. develops, produces, markets, sells and services advanced semiconductor equipment systems exclusively consisting of lithography systems. Co. sells its products to micro-processor manufacturers and Foundries, NAND-Flash memory and DRAM memory chipmakers. Co.'s products line includes the following: PAS 5000 lithography systems, which Co. no longer manufactures but continues to refurbish; PAS 5500 products; TWINSCAN DUV systems and TWINSCAN EUV systems based on a new platform utilizing the concepts of the TWINSCAN platform.

Bpost SA

Bpost is engaged in the provision of national and international mail and parcels services comprising the collection, transport, sorting and distribution of addressed and non-addressed mail, printed documents, newspapers and parcels. In addition, through its subsidiaries and business units, Co. sells a range of other products and services, including postal, parcels, banking and financial products, express delivery services, document management and related activities. Co. operates through two business units: the Mail & Retail Solutions and the Parcels & International.

Care Property Invest SA

Care Property Invest NV. Care Property Invest NV, formerly Serviceflats Invest NV, is a Belgium-based real estate investment company that builds and finances housing for pensioners. The Company specializes in premises equipped with technologies ensuring safety and comfort of elderly people. In addition, Care Property Invest designs, builds, supervises the progress of a number of construction works, monitors the budget and finances projects in the long term. Care Property Invest NV cooperates mainly for public health care center in Antwerp -Openbaar Centrum voor Maatschappelijk Welziijn (OCMW), including Berchem. The Company focuses its activities on the Belgian market. It operates through a number of subsidiaries, such as Ter Bleuk NV, Siger SA and Konli BVBA and VSP Wolvertem bvba.

D'Ieteren SA

D'Ieteren is engaged in two sectors of services to the motorist: Automobile Distribution, which is a distributor of Volkswagen, Audi, Seat, Skoda, Bentley, Lamborghini, Bugatti, Porsche, and Yamaha brands in Belgium; and Vehicle Glass, which is engaged in the repair and replacement of vehicle glass mainly in Europe, North and South America, Australia and New Zealand through Belron s.a. and notably its CARGLASS®, AUTOGLASS® and SAFELITE® AUTO GLASS brands.

EVS Broadcast Equipment SA

EVS Broadcasting Equipment is engaged in the development and marketing of audiovisual equipment relating to the processing of pictures and sound. Co. provides solutions based on tapeless workflows with a consistent modular architecture. Co.'s activities are divided into the following regions: Asia-Pacific, Europe, Middle East and Africa, and America.

Fugro NV Cert of Shs

Fugro collects and interprets data related to the earth's surface, soils, and rocks beneath. Co. provides advice to oil and gas, mining, and construction industries. Co. provides the people, equipment and technology that support the exploration, development, production and transportation of the world's natural resources. Co. also provides its clients with the technical data and information required to design, construct and maintain structures and infrastructure in a safe, reliable and efficient manner. Co. operates in three divisions: Geotechnical, Survey, and Geoscience.

Groupe Bruxelles Lambert SA

Groupe Bruxelles Lambert is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. operates through the following segments: Imerys, which consists of the Imerys group that operates in four business lines of energy solutions and specialties, filtration and performance additives, ceramic materials, and high resistance minerals; and Financial Pillar, which includes, on the one hand, under investment activities, the companies Sienna Capital, Ergon Capital Partners (ECP), ECP II, ECP III, PAI Europe III, Sagard, Sagard II and Sagard III, Kartesia and Merieux Participations I and II and, on the other hand, under consolidated operating activities, the operating subsidiaries of ECP III.

Intervest Offices & Warehouses SA

Intervest Offices & Warehouses is a Belgian property investment fund. Co. specializes in investments in office buildings and semi-industrial properties situated on locations outside municipal centres. Co.'s business properties are located on the Antwerp-Brussels axis. Its activities can be divided into two business segments: Offices segment which includes the properties that are let to companies for professional purposes as office space; and Semi-industrial buildings segment which includes those premises with a logistical function, storage facilities and high-tech buildings. At Dec 31 2010, Co.'s portfolio consists of 69% in offices buildings and 31% in semi-industrial buildings.

Kinepolis Group NV

Kinepolis Group NV is a Belgium-based company, which is primarily engaged in the operation of cinemas. The Company's activities are divided into such business units, as Box office, In-theatre sales, Business-to-business (B2B), Film distribution and Real Estate. The Box office unit includes sale of the tickets. The In-theatre sales unit is involved in the sale of snacks and related articles. The B2B unit takes care of the organization of corporate events and the sale of screen advertizing to corporate customers. The Film distribution unit includes all activities related to movies showed in the cinema. The Real Estate is responsible for the property management and utilization. Additionally, the Company has a Technical department, which delivers technological support to Kinepolis facilities. The Company is present in Belgium, France, Spain and Poland.

Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V.

Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize is an international group of supermarket and foodservice operators based in Europe and the U.S. Co. operates supermarkets and convenience stores. In addition, Co. provides online food retailing services. Co. also finances, develops and manages store sites and shopping centers. Ahold Europe comprises Albert Heijn in the Netherlands and Belgium; Etos, Gall & Gall, and albert.nl in the Netherlands; and Albert / Hypernova in the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Ahold USA is organized into four retail divisions: Giant Carlisle, Giant Landover, Stop & Shop New England, and Stop & Shop New York Metro. The Peapod online business is also part of Ahold USA.

Materialise ADS

Telenet Group Holding NV

Telenet Group Holding is a holding company. Through its subsdiairies and its broadband network, Co. is engaged in the provision of cable television, including television services, broadband internet and telephony services to residential subscribers in Flanders and certain communes in Brussels as well as broadband internet, data and voice services in the business market throughout Belgium and parts of Luxembourg. In addition, Co. is engaged in the provision of mobile telephony services through a mobile virtual network operator partnership with Mobistar NV.

TINC Comm. VA

TINC Comm VA. Tinc Comm VA, also known as TINC, is a Belgium-based company focusing on investments in Infrastructure Asset Companies holding capitalintensive Infrastructure Assets providing services and generating cash flows of a long term sustainable nature. The Initial Investment Portfolio of the Company includes investments in over 10 Infrastructure Asset Companies holding underlying Infrastructure Assets in public private partnerships (PPP), energy and real assets in Belgium and the Netherlands, including Strorm and Brabo 1, among others. It operates through Storm Holding 4 NV.

UCB S.A.

UCB is a global biopharmaceutical company focused on severe diseases in two therapeutic areas, namely central nervous system disorders and immunology. In the area of central nervous system disorders, Co. is focused on advanced Parkinson's disease, epilepsy, restless legs syndrome and epilepsy. In the area of immunology disorders, Co. is focused on rheumatoid arthritis, axial spondyloarthritis, psoriatic arthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus, juvenile idiopathic arthritis, post-menopausal osteoporosis, systemic lupus erythematosus and immunological diseases.

Umicore

Umicore is global player in the materials technology and recycling industries. Co. focuses on application areas such as chemistry, materials science, metallurgy and recycling. Co.'s business model comprises four segments: Catalysis, Performance Materials, Energy Materials and Recycling. Catalysis focuses on the abatement of global automotive emissions; Performance Materials focuses on materials that help develop more sophisticated and safer products; Energy Materials produces materials used in the production and storage of clean energy including rechargeable batteries and photovoltaics; and Recycling treats complex waste streams containing precious and other non-ferrous metals.

X Fab Silicon Foundries SE

Provider
KBC Securities
KBC Securities

We are a financial services provider for several types of professional clients, each with distinct needs.

 

Analysts
Wim Lewi

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