Elia Group 1Q25 Trading update
In its 1Q25 trading update, Elia confirmed its FY25 net group profit outlook between EUR 490m and 540m. Elia now uses a lower base rate for the GE regulatory return of 2.30% and 2.80% for ETB. At the FY24 results the Capex FY24-28 was raised by 1.6bn to 31.6bn. 50Hz typically has a higher ROE (8-10%) vs. ETB (7-8%). WindGrid is evaluating Forward Power Offshore, which holds a 25% stake in Leading Light Wind, a project currently facing uncertainty due to executive orders from the Trump Administration. However, this week the Trump administration reversed its order to halt a $5 billion wind energy project off the coast of New York, offering relief to the industry. After the 2.2bn equity issue, Elia recovered from the overhang uncertainty and is trading close to our EUR 95.0 target price. We maintain an accumulate as the stock is a good hiding place in the current tariff uncertainty.Elia System Operator develops, operates and maintains very-high-voltage (380 kV, 220 kV and 150 kV) and high-voltage (70 kV, 36 kV and 30 kV) networks, providing its customers with consultancy and engineering services. Whether in Belgium, Germany or elsewhere in Europe or the U.S., Co. ensures that electricity flows reliably from energy producers to distributors and large corporate customers. Co.'s main activities include transmission operator, system operator and market facilitator, developing and maintaining grid infrastructure, connecting electrical installations to grids, providing transparent access to grids, while taking initiatives to improve electricity market operations.
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