PostNL From Volume to Value Amid Mail Uncertainty
During the CMD mid-September, PNL announced a normalized EBIT target of at least € 175m by 2028. The improvement is expected to come from strong international growth and a significant margin uplift in domestic e-commerce. Key drivers include the expansion of the APL network and the shift from next-day to best-day delivery. While we see these initiatives as logical next steps, we expect uncertainty in the mail business and negative mix effects at parcels to persist. As most of the guided margin improvement is back-end loaded, we remain cautious and bank on a FY28 normalized EBIT of €135m (prev. € 106m). Our FY25 estimates remain broadly unchanged. We reiterate our Hold rating but increase our TP from €1.0 to €1.1ps.PostNL is a mail, parcel and e-commerce corporation with operations in the Netherlands, Germany, Italy, Belgium, and the United Kingdom. Co. has been assigned by the Dutch government to carry out the UPD (Universele Postdienst, Dutch for Universal Postal Service). Carrying out the UPD requires, amongst other things, Co. to deliver mail throughout the Netherlands five days a week (Tuesday through Saturday) and to maintain enough mailboxes in the country. ACM is charged with monitoring and enforcing the execution by Co. Co.'s operations are organized along three business segments: Mail in the Netherlands; Parcels; and International. Co. maintains over ten networks across thirteen countries.
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