What Is the 10-Year Rate Telling Us?
Just a few weeks after the 2016 U.S. presidential election, the yield on U.S. 10-year Treasuries is up roughly 50 basis points as investors reassess their outlook for the country’s economic prospects. Data from the CME Group indicates a 93% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise its Fed Funds target by 25 basis points at the Dec. 14 meeting. Bank stocks have responded in dramatic fashion, in some cases exceeding our fair value estimates.We note that relatively rate-insensitive names, s...
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