Slowdown in Orkambi Refills Has Negligible Impact on Our $136 Fair Value Estimate
Vertex’s stock has been trading down following management’s morning comments regarding a slowdown in Orkambi refills in July and August. We believe the news has a negligible impact to our $136 price target. While we expect the lag in refills will cause Orkambi sales to fall slightly under management’s 2016 guidance of $1 billion-$1.1 billion, we anticipate that the persistence rates of the drug will eventually reach 70%, which conservatively takes the lower end of management’s 70%-80% guidance. ...Vertex Pharmaceuticals is focused on developing and commercializing therapies for the treatment of cystic fibrosis (CF) and developing research and development programs in other indications. The company's marketed products are TRIKAFTA (elexacaftor/tezacaftor/ivacaftor and ivacaftor), SYMDEKO/SYMKEVI (tezacaftor in combination with ivacaftor), ORKAMBI (lumacaftor in combination with ivacaftor) and KALYDECO (ivacaftor), which are approved to treat patients with CF who have specific mutations in their cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator gene. The company is evaluating CTX001, a genetic therapy as a potential treatment for sickle cell disease and beta-thalassemia.
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