ECO Express Augmentation du rythme de contamination en Espagne et Royaume Uni . Le nombre de cas dépasse désormais 1.5million Économie France : Contraction de 6% du PIB au T1 (estimation BdF) Monde : L’OMC attend une contraction du commerce mondial entre 13% et 32% Politique Les Démocrates présentent un nouveau projet de stimulus > 500Mds . Les ministres des Finances Européens échouent à s’entendre sur une réponse budgétaire à la crise (543Mds proposés) Marchés financiers Monétaire : Nouvelle détente sur les CP NonFinanciers Crédit : poursuite du resserrement des iTraxx (le X-Ove...
COVID-19 Acceleration in number of new cases in Spain and the UK. Number of cases has passed 1.5 million in the world. Economy France : 6% contraction of Q1 GDP according to BdF estimate. World : WTO predicts global trade will shrink between 13% and 32%. Policy responses US : Democrats propose new stimulus plan in excess of $500bn. EZ : EU Finance Ministers fail to agree on €500bn fiscal package to mitigate impact of health crisis. Financial markets Money : further easing for nonfinancial CP. Credit : further tightening of iTraxx indices (taking X-Over to 536bp). Outperformance by property d...
The global savings-investment equilibrium is observed ex post , but this equilibrium and the trend in real interest rates provide information on the characteristics of the ex-ante savings-investment equilibrium: The global private savings rate has risen since 2010, which stems from the United States, China and oil-producing countries; The global fiscal deficit has risen considerably since 2009; Since 2010, the global private investment rate has risen slightly; housing investment has fallen; and non-housing (corporate) investment has risen considerably. The key takeaway is that the ex...
Long-term interest rates are low and falling across industrialized bond markets. This is causing yield curves to flatten nearly everywhere. Some investors worry this is signaling a slowdown in global GDP growth. We do not share these concerns, at least in the US. However, this does not mean the Fed should ignore what worldwide investors are discounting, especially as it relates to expectations of persistently low inflation.
Before last week’s January employment report, we highlighted the fact that record low unemployment does not preclude further robust job gains. This is because both the employment to population ratio and the labor force participation rate still remain well below previous cyclical highs. Hence, there is plenty of labor supply available for firms to pull workers off the sidelines and into the job market. Despite record low unemployment, underlying payroll gains have accelerated.
The unemployment rate finished 2019 at a 50 -year low. This has caused some analysts to fret that a tight labor market will limit the economy’s ability to continue to generate healthy employment gains. We have a different view as a couple of important labor market gauges suggest strong hiring will persist for the foreseeable future.
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