A major development: Towards the disappearance of the euro zone’s external surplus

We believe that the euro zone’s external surplus, which appeared in 2012, is going to disappear, the first signs of which can be seen in 2020. The underlying reason for its disappearance is the euro zone’s change of economic strategy: Europe (with the European recovery plan) and the euro-zone countries (with their fiscal deficits made possible by the ECB’s monetary policy) have decided to borrow the euro zone’s excess savings largely to invest or co-invest with companies. This policy will have major consequences: Upturn in the investment rate (which will plug the gap between savings and investment) and in potential growth in the euro zone; No more purchases by the euro zone of the rest of the world’s bonds, in particular the United States’, and an appreciation of the euro (depreciation of the dollar).