Report
Patrick Artus

Can we see a link between recruitment difficulties and wage growth?

The question here is substantial : will the very significant recruitment difficulties in the United States and the euro zone lead to significant wage increases and high inflation? We therefore seek to determine whether there is a robust link between recruitment difficulties and wage increases, or whether recruitment difficulties can lead to other reactions: productivity gains in particular. Over the period 1995-2019, we see: No effect of recruitment difficulties on productivity; In the euro zone, no effect of recruitment difficulties on wages; In the United States, an effect of recruitment difficulties on wages, but which is dominated by the effect of the unemployment rate. We should therefore not conclude from the recruitment difficulties observed today that there will be an acceleration in wages or productivity.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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