Colombia- Trip Notes

On February 4-6, we met with central bank officials, local analysts, pension fund managers and bank officials. These ar e the takeaways from our trip. After the trip our worries about the fiscal position in 2019 were assuaged but now we are more worried about the fiscal pressures in 2020 than before.  Tweaking the fiscal rule seems increasingly likely.  We believe rati ng agencies will give Colombia a negative outlook. However, downgrades are unlikely at least in 2019.  We believe that BanRep will deliver one or two 25bps hikes in 2019. But two hikes are slightly more likely than one. The sale of Ecopetrol stock now seems less likely in 2019. But could become an important topic in 2020.