VIVT3 (Buy, TP: BRL61, +23%) Vivo - Solid underlying Q1s – headline EBITDA hit by one-offs

Underlying Q1 trends remained robust at Vivo, with revenue in-line (+7% y/y growth) and headline EBITDA missing (1.5%) only due to other items in the cost base (gains/sales) fluctuating. Excluding this and underlying EBITDA of +9% y/y was steady on Q4, and comparable to TIM’s +10% (reported yesterday). Vivo’s mobile service revenue was the strongest in Brazil vs peers, offset slightly by lower fixed growth (the more volatile data/IT business slowing this quarter).

TIMS3 (Buy, TP: BRL23, +24%) TIM Brasil - Solid Q1s, trending ahead of FY guide

TIM reported solid Q1 24 earnings overnight, coming in a shade of ahead of estimates (1% at EBITDA). Service revenue growth remains robust at >7% y/y, with some seasonality potentially impacting Q1 pre-pay revenue; EBITDA of +10% y/y and EBITDAaL +20% y/y is also very strong (and well ahead of 4% inflation), the latter enjoying historic lease reductions (though these are now sequentially stabilising). Q1 trends are tracking a touch above FY guide, potentially enabling further earnings uplift.

5G FWA in EM Rapidly falling CPE prices likely to accelerate adoption in EM

This is the 4th in a series of notes looking at FWA (see HERE, HERE and HERE). Recent sharp declines in 5G FWA CPE prices and the launch of 5G RedCap makes us more optimistic on timing of widespread adoption in EM.

DT vs. BT: 160% total return over 10 years. Which one? DT (Buy, €32, +45%), BT (Buy, £1.95, +47%)

It’s been a busy day and we have now wrapped on the BT full-year results meeting and the DT earnings call and share our key takeaways from the day on the similarities and differences between the two.

Grab 1Q24: Good momentum in mobility. Unit economics improve further. Buy, $5.3

Cisco: Stabilization in the core. Slow recovery ahead