IHO / Schaeffler : Complexity has not reduced, but IHO’s relative value has

1/ Automotive and industrial headwinds (even before Liberation Day), to be addressed by Schaeffler and Conti via self-help measures. The current developments are very dynamic and there is a great degree of uncertainty over the next 12-18 months and if finally a recession will be seen or not. 2/ Remaining rating risk and that the IHO PIK toggle notes become B+ at S&P. 3/ The IHO bonds lost attractiveness in the last months, following a recovery after the March 2025 sell-off. Schaeffler bonds were never really attractive from a relative value perspective. 4/ Successful realisation of synergies a...

IHO / Schaeffler : Complexity has not reduced, but IHO’s relative value has

1/ Automotive and industrial headwinds (even before Liberation Day), to be addressed by Schaeffler and Conti via self-help measures. The current developments are very dynamic and there is a great degree of uncertainty over the next 12-18 months and if finally a recession will be seen or not. 2/ Remaining rating risk and that the IHO PIK toggle notes become B+ at S&P. 3/ The IHO bonds lost attractiveness in the last months, following a recovery after the March 2025 sell-off. Schaeffler bonds were never really attractive from a relative value perspective. 4/ Successful realisation of synergies a...

IHO / Schaeffler : We adopt Buy recommendations on the new IHO PIK toggle notes

Our Credit Opinion on IHO and Schaeffler is Negative (vs. Stable) given the expected downgrades (Schaeffler would become a BB-range risk – at least temporary) and the weak automotive market. Other items which we need to follow up on include: - 1/ the Conti reorganisation and the planned automotive group spin-off, - 2/ competition with Asian peers and how market shares will be trending, - 3/ changing political framework and landscape (tariffs policy, outcome of US election, ICE ban), - 4/...

Negative signals for the US housing sector

Macro indicators for the construction sector, and the housing market in particular, have been poor recently. Homebuilders confidence has plummeted, housing sales and starts are stagnating at low levels. A sector so central to the economy appears to be frozen. President Trump has an idea for boosting the sector, and this would involve cutting Fed rates by 200-300bp in one fell swoop, in the hope of making the cost of mortgage borrowing bearable. His anti-Powell fury no doubt has something to do with this housing slump. It goes without saying that the Fed is not prepared to move that fast or th...

Oddo’s 2 Weeks Ahead_Friday 27 June 2025

Signaux négatifs pour le secteur immobilier US

Dernièrement, les indicateurs macro relatifs au secteur de la construction, en particulier le marché du logement, ont été mauvais. La confiance des promoteurs a chuté, les ventes et la production de logements stagnent à un bas niveau. Un secteur si central pour l’économie paraît gelé. Le président Trump a une idée pour lui redonner du tonus, ce serait de baisser les taux de la Fed de 200-300pdb d’un coup, dans l’espoir de rendre supportable le coût des emprunts immobiliers. Sa fureur anti-Powell a sans doute à voir avec ce marasme. La Fed n’est pas disposée à bouger si vite ni si fort il va sa...