Benelux Morning Notes

Talabat: 1Q25 results – delivering on its promise. TKH Group: Preview - Weak 1Q. Events Calendar

Universal Music Group/A shelter from the storm/HOLD

We trim our 2025F-27F estimates 2-3%, purely on FX, and up our TP slightly to €29.5, on higher financial investments (Spotify share price performance) and slightly higher long-term estimates. This follows a 2% EBITDA consensus beat on 5% better sales in 1Q25, backed by a very confident message from management on (1) broad-based DSPs subscription growth improvement, (2) achieving the 2028 targets (>7% sales CAGR, >10% EBITDA CAGR), thanks to incoming wholesale price increases, DSP own price increases, super premium offerings, (3) resilient music consumption, also in ad-based streaming, with thr...

Benelux Morning Notes

Aedifica, Cofinimmo: Aedifica CMD feedback bpost: 1Q25 results beat strongly, outlook surprises Brunel: 1Q25 results disappoint on perm, weak revenue Cofinimmo, Aedifica: Negative reaction on Aedifica offer Eurocommercial Properties: Good with no surprise Montea: Good results, guidance reconfirmed Proximus: Small 1Q beat, guidance reiterated, soft commercial performance Sif Group: The jury is still out Talabat: Preview 1Q25 Universal Music Group: Peer Warner Music slowdown in streaming and profitability VGP: Strong lease activity, positive message on JV Events Calendar

Negative signals for the US housing sector

Macro indicators for the construction sector, and the housing market in particular, have been poor recently. Homebuilders confidence has plummeted, housing sales and starts are stagnating at low levels. A sector so central to the economy appears to be frozen. President Trump has an idea for boosting the sector, and this would involve cutting Fed rates by 200-300bp in one fell swoop, in the hope of making the cost of mortgage borrowing bearable. His anti-Powell fury no doubt has something to do with this housing slump. It goes without saying that the Fed is not prepared to move that fast or th...

Oddo’s 2 Weeks Ahead_Friday 27 June 2025

Signaux négatifs pour le secteur immobilier US

Dernièrement, les indicateurs macro relatifs au secteur de la construction, en particulier le marché du logement, ont été mauvais. La confiance des promoteurs a chuté, les ventes et la production de logements stagnent à un bas niveau. Un secteur si central pour l’économie paraît gelé. Le président Trump a une idée pour lui redonner du tonus, ce serait de baisser les taux de la Fed de 200-300pdb d’un coup, dans l’espoir de rendre supportable le coût des emprunts immobiliers. Sa fureur anti-Powell a sans doute à voir avec ce marasme. La Fed n’est pas disposée à bouger si vite ni si fort il va sa...