EUR 100.00 For Business Accounts Only

IBERIAN DAILY 02 DECEMBER (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: INDITEX, REPSOL, SANTANDER.

December kicks off with losses
Stock markets on both sides of the Atlantic started the week off with drops in a cautious session. The IBEX 35 ended its streak of five straight sessions of gains, while the geopolitical risk continues to rise after Trump ordered Venezuelan airspace be closed. In the STOXX 600, Household Goods and Basic Materials rose the most, with the biggest drops coming in Industrials and Financial Services. On the macro side, in Spain November’s manufacturing PMI fell unexpectedly, although still at a level consistent with expansion. In the euro zone, November’s final manufacturing PMI was cut slightly due to the German data. In the US, the final manufacturing PMI was raised, while the manufacturing ISM fell unexpectedly due to the drops in new orders and employment. In Mexico, November’s manufacturing PMI fell to 47.3 from the previous 49.5. In trade matters, the UK signed a zero tariff on British pharmaceuticals with the US in exchange for the former paying more for US drugs. Additionally, the US lowered the tariff on the South Korean automotive sector from 25% to 15% to put it on par with Japan and Europe.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open flat, with a slight bullish slant. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.16% (the S&P 500 ended down -0.46% vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are mixed (China’s CSI 300 -0.65%, Japan’s Nikkei +0.10% and Kospi +1.70%).
Today in the euro zone we will learn October’s unemployment rate and November’s inflation and in Brazil October’s industrial output.


COMPANY NEWS

REPSOL. Better refining margin and retail business. New T.P. € 18.15/sh. OVERWEIGHT
We raise our adjusted Net Profit’25-27 estimates by around +5% due to the improved refining margin in 2025e and 2026e and the retail business. This would mean a CAGR’24-27e in adjusted Net Profit of -3.9% vs. the previous -5.4%. We believe the upcoming 2026-28 Strategic Plan (in 1Q’26e) will maintain the trends in shareholder remuneration, balance sheet strength and capex management. With all this in mind, we raise our T.P. to € 18.15/sh. (around +9% vs. the previous). Despite the stock’s solid performance in 2025 (+48% vs. +47% IBEX and +36% European oil sector), we maintain our OVERWEIGHT recommendation thanks to the upside (+12%) and shareholder remuneration (~10.4% yield in cash and buybacks). A liquidity event in the Upstream business, generating value, would raise our T.P. by around an additional +7%.