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IBERIAN DAILY 23 OCTOBER + 3Q’25 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: BANKINTER, CAF, GREENING, INDRA, REDEIA.

At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 3Q’25 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

Pause in market gains
It was a transitional session on European stock markets, which closed with losses (except the IBEX, which was once again near record highs) after the meeting between Trump and Putin was cancelled. In the STOXX 600, Leisure and Real Estate were the sectors rising the most, with the biggest losses in Autos and Consumer Goods (dragged down by company results). On the macro side, in the UK, September’s inflation was unexpectedly low, remaining at 3.8% YoY, with the core figure falling more than expected to 3.5%. In Mexico, September’s IGAE index slowed its YoY contraction less than expected. In geopolitics, the US has announced sanctions on the largest Russian oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil (UK imposed sanctions last week), while the EU has approved a new sanctions package, this time to ban Russian liquified gas in two stages by 2027. In US business results, Hilton was in line with expectations, Mood’s beat expectations and Tesla released disappointing earnings.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with a slightly bearish slant that should be turned into gains throughout the session, and with the energy sector leading the gains in view of the oil price rally. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.05% (the S&P 500 ended flat vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are falling (China’s CSI 300 -0.60% and Japan’s Nikkei -1.5%).
Today in the euro zone we will learn October’s consumer confidence and in Mexico August’s retail sales. In US business results Ford Motor, Baker Hughes and T-Mobile, among others, will release their earnings.


COMPANY NEWS

BANKINTER, UNDERWEIGHT
The 3Q’25 results are very much in line in revenues (-0.4% vs. expectations in revenues due to NII) and slightly above in costs (+0.6%). Net Profit beat expectations by +2% due to lower provisions (€ 77 M vs. € 83 M BS(e)) and a lower tax rate (28.5% vs. 30% BS(e)). Awaiting the conference call at 9:00 (CET), the company has not changed its guidance’25. ROTE over the past 12 months stands at 19.4% (19.5% in 2Q’25) and CET1 reached 12.94% (vs. 12.57% in 2Q’25), with +61bps from organic generation and -28bps from others/adjustments (-28bps). The NPL ratio came in at 2.05% (vs. 2.14% in 2Q’25).
The results are very much in line and should see a neutral/slightly bearish reception due to the lack of surprises. The stock has performed well over the past six months (+16% vs. +10% sector). Despite the high ROTE, we think the stock is trading at demanding levels (~2x P/TE’25 vs. 1.4x sector).