We are neutral on Alibaba as it is fighting two fronts: weaker China economy and traffic competition from ByteDance. With its resources and executions, eventually we believe BABA will win the fights. In terms of the Chinese economy, all data is pointing to weaker retail sales growth. The overall social retail growth was 2.5% Y/Y, a decline from 8.5% Y/Y in July and 12.1% Y/Y in June. Express delivery volume growth was 24.3% Y/Y in August, down from 28.6% Y/Y in July and 30.4% in June. At this point, BABA is not making meaningful external business expansions, but rather making internal changes to improve its operational efficiency
T.H. Capital is an independent research and investment advisory firm specializing in China. We offers real-time, on-the-ground, bottom-up research across a wide spectrum from macro and industry analysis to company specific projects; from China ADRs to international names that have meaningful exposure to China market. We deliver relevant, comprehensive and data driven research adding immense value to clients.
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