T.H. Capital

​T.H. Capital is an independent research and investment advisory firm specializing in China. We offers real-time, on-the-ground, bottom-up research across a wide spectrum from macro and industry analysis to company specific projects; from China ADRs to international names that have meaningful exposure to China market. We deliver relevant, comprehensive and data driven research adding immense value to clients.

Tian Hou
  • Tian Hou

ZTO: Positive On 4Q23 Performance And 2024 Outlook As China’s Economy ...

ZTO will report 4Q23 results on March 19th after the market closes followed by a 7:30pm ET conference call. We are positive about its 4Q23 performance. While ZTO’s business is highly correlated with China's e-commerce business, which ZTO always outpaces, the company is also maintaining its high market share. We are also positive about ZTO’s long-term position as there has been new e-commerce players in China’s market, which presents increasing demand for logistics services. In addition, 2023 is ...

Tian Hou
  • Tian Hou

PDD: Positive On 4Q23 Performance Driven By Growth From Temu

We are positive about PDD’s performance in 4Q23 driven by Temu. Temu’s business model is agency business, like that of VipShop’s (VIPS, $17.22, Not Rated) business model. Under such a model, we estimate that 30% of Temu’s GMV becomes its international revenue. Temu GMV has been growing and continues to grow rapidly. We estimate the Q/Q growth to be around 40% in 4Q23 with approximately two-thirds of GMV coming from the US market. Its recent expansion in Japan and Korea is also ramping up rapidly...

Tian Hou
  • Tian Hou

BEKE Positive On BEKE’s 4Q23 Earnings, But China’s Property Market Rem...

BEKE will report 4Q23 results on March 14th before the markets open with an 8am ET conference call. We are positive on the company’s 4Q23 earnings but neutral on 1Q24 and its long-term outlook. Based on our data and assumptions, BEKE revenue is likely to increase 13.9% Y/Y to RMB19.07B in 4Q23E, slightly better than consensus at RMB18.8B. However, 1Q24 consensus revenue seems to be aggressive.

Tian Hou
  • Tian Hou

WB: Economic Recovery In China In 2024 Is Likely to Benefit WB; Steady...

WB will report 4Q23 results on March 14th before the markets open with a 7am ET conference call. We are neutral on WB’s 4Q23 revenue performance, but the margin is likely to be better as spending is not aggressive.  China's economy in 2023 showed unexpected slow growth, which is likely to be reflected in WB’s 4Q23 earnings. However, it also provides a low comparison base for 2024. WB is likely to benefit from such a situation. China's economy has its resilience, and it is on its way to gradual r...

Tian Hou
  • Tian Hou

NTES: Expect Strong 4Q23 Performance Driven By New And Existing Games ...

NTES will report 4Q23 results on February 29th before the markets open with a 7am ET conference call. We are positive on NTES’s 4Q23 performance. The positive performance, we believe, is driven by the better performance from both domestic and international markets. Internationally, over the last two years, NTES has developed 22 overseas game studios. We expect NTES to have more overseas studios set up in 2024. Domestically, we believe existing PC games contributed more to the bottom line in 4Q23...

Tian Hou
  • Tian Hou

ZTO: Positive On 4Q23 Performance And 2024 Outlook As China’s Economy ...

ZTO will report 4Q23 results on March 19th after the market closes followed by a 7:30pm ET conference call. We are positive about its 4Q23 performance. While ZTO’s business is highly correlated with China's e-commerce business, which ZTO always outpaces, the company is also maintaining its high market share. We are also positive about ZTO’s long-term position as there has been new e-commerce players in China’s market, which presents increasing demand for logistics services. In addition, 2023 is ...

Tian Hou
  • Tian Hou

PDD: Positive On 4Q23 Performance Driven By Growth From Temu

We are positive about PDD’s performance in 4Q23 driven by Temu. Temu’s business model is agency business, like that of VipShop’s (VIPS, $17.22, Not Rated) business model. Under such a model, we estimate that 30% of Temu’s GMV becomes its international revenue. Temu GMV has been growing and continues to grow rapidly. We estimate the Q/Q growth to be around 40% in 4Q23 with approximately two-thirds of GMV coming from the US market. Its recent expansion in Japan and Korea is also ramping up rapidly...

Tian Hou
  • Tian Hou

BEKE Positive On BEKE’s 4Q23 Earnings, But China’s Property Market Rem...

BEKE will report 4Q23 results on March 14th before the markets open with an 8am ET conference call. We are positive on the company’s 4Q23 earnings but neutral on 1Q24 and its long-term outlook. Based on our data and assumptions, BEKE revenue is likely to increase 13.9% Y/Y to RMB19.07B in 4Q23E, slightly better than consensus at RMB18.8B. However, 1Q24 consensus revenue seems to be aggressive.

Tian Hou
  • Tian Hou

WB: Economic Recovery In China In 2024 Is Likely to Benefit WB; Steady...

WB will report 4Q23 results on March 14th before the markets open with a 7am ET conference call. We are neutral on WB’s 4Q23 revenue performance, but the margin is likely to be better as spending is not aggressive.  China's economy in 2023 showed unexpected slow growth, which is likely to be reflected in WB’s 4Q23 earnings. However, it also provides a low comparison base for 2024. WB is likely to benefit from such a situation. China's economy has its resilience, and it is on its way to gradual r...

Tian Hou
  • Tian Hou

NTES: Expect Strong 4Q23 Performance Driven By New And Existing Games ...

NTES will report 4Q23 results on February 29th before the markets open with a 7am ET conference call. We are positive on NTES’s 4Q23 performance. The positive performance, we believe, is driven by the better performance from both domestic and international markets. Internationally, over the last two years, NTES has developed 22 overseas game studios. We expect NTES to have more overseas studios set up in 2024. Domestically, we believe existing PC games contributed more to the bottom line in 4Q23...

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