Rubrik IPO: unsustainable moat dictates sufficient margin of safety

Ahead of Rubrik's IPO later in the day, we review the vendor's activities, positioning, efficiency metrics, financials, and valuation. While we strongly believe in the growth of data security, we question Rubrik's ability to (profitably) differentiate itself over the long term, as both hyperscalers

New financial targets in focus

Aims for adj. EPS of at least SEK 5.50 in '26. Driven by 10% EBITA CAGR and buybacks. We trim our long-term assumptions.

Strong beat in Q1

Orange : Un équilibre à retrouver. Opinion abaissée à Neutre

>France : un marché à rééquilibrer et le risque d’un retour d’Altice France - Le T1 2024 d’Orange rappelle le déséquilibre actuel du marché : Iliad et Bouygues captent 80% de la croissance de CA du marché (vs Orange ~20% en excluant le wholesale en recul), dont 100% de la croissance nette internet (Orange 0%) et 80% de la croissance nette des contrats mobile (Orange ~20% - Cf. page 1). Certes, le recul du parc d’Orange semble limité à 1% par an ; mais le risque nous s...

DSM-Firmenich : Q1 24 preview (2 May)

>We roughly expect more of the same - While reiterating that it is seeing signs of market stabilisation, DSM-Firmenich has maintained a cautious stance in its market communication in Q1 24 and is not (yet) assuming much regarding a potential inflection in trading conditions. The challenging destocking and pricing environment in mainly ANH and HNC end-markets persists, and we do not expect significant improvements in Q1 24. We estimate € 3,150bn revenues and € 469m adj...

Azelis Group NV : Not yet out of the woods

>End markets remain challenging - Azelis’ end-market demand remained weak and translated into the company’s results for the quarter. The company generated Q1 24 revenues of € 1,051m, -4% yoy and -7% below our estimates (-8.1% yoy organic decline for Q1 24). Operating EBITA for the quarter was c. € 124m, -7% yoy (-9% vs. AAOBe). Profitability remained relatively high despite the cyclical weakness, but the group’s conversion margin decreased yoy in Q1 24, for the third ...

Technical analysis: European equities on the threshold of a solid upsw...

Having flirted with the 495-point mark on Friday, which could have triggered an extension of the correction, the market has rebounded well since then. Our technical analysis highlights a configuration in which we are only at the start of a powerful rally. Target of 622 points for Stoxx 600 index (+11%) by the end of the year confirmed. Prefer banks to insurance companies in the short term. >...

Strong start to the year

Soft Q1 results

Slight miss but expect limited cons revisions

Argan SA : L’attractivité de la société se voit renforcée par le succè...

>La société augmente avec succès son capital de 150 M€ (i.e. 8.7% du capital) …. - Argan a annoncé hier matin avoir réalisé avec succès une augmentation de capital de 150 M€ sous forme d’ABB. 2 027 028 nouvelles actions ont ainsi pu être émises, soit 8.7% du capital avant augmentation du capital à un prix de souscription de 74 € représentant une décote de c.6% par rapport au cours du 23 avril et à l’EPRA NTA / action à fin 2023 de 79.2 €. Nous comprenons que cette aug...

Voltalia : CA T1 24 globalement en ligne et guidances 2024 et 2027 réa...

>Opinion Neutre et OC 7.70 € maintenus - Le chiffre d’affaires du T1 24 est ressorti globalement en ligne avec nos attentes (111.1 M€ vs 100.4 M€) porté par les capacités installées en croissance (+47% vs T1 23) en partie compensées par une faiblesse des ressources dans l’éolien brésilien (taux d’utilisation de 27% vs 40%). L’objectif d’EBITDA d’environ 255 M€, dont autour de 230 M€ provenant des ventes d’énergie en 2024, a été confirmé à nouveau. Notre recommandation...

Argan SA : Appeal strengthened by success of € 150m capital increase

>€ 150m capital increase successfully achieved (i.e. 8.7% of capital) …. - Argan yesterday morning announced the success of its capital increase in the form of an ABB. 2,027,028 new shares were thus issued, i.e. 8.7% of the capital pre increase at a subscription price of € 74, equating to a discount of c.6% to the price on 23 April and EPRA NTA per share at end-2023 of € 79.2. We understand that this capital increase was oversubscribed and with broadly pan-European in...

Vantiva : A very disappointing start to the year

>Q1 revenues plunge despite the integration of Commscope Home Networks - Vantiva reported yesterday evening its 2024 Q1 revenues. These proved very disappointing, down 20% to € 458m (vs. ODDO BHF = € 607m) despite the integration of Commscope Home Networks (contribution undisclosed vs. € 221m in our initial model). The Connected Home division (down 22% to € 358m vs. ODDO BHF = € 506m) suffered from a high comparison base, destocking and a slowdown in operator inv...

Voltalia : Q1 2024 sales broadly in line and guidance for 2024 and 202...

>Neutral rating and target price of € 7.70 maintained - Q1 2024 sales were broadly in line with our estimates with (€ 111.1m vs € 100.4m) buoyed by an increase in installed capacity (+47% vs Q1 2023) partly offset by low resources in wind in Brazil (utilisation rate of 27% vs 40%). The EBITDA target for around € 255m, of which some € 230m stemming from energy sales in 2024, has once again been confirmed. We maintain our Neutral rating and our target price of € 7.70, s...