Topdown Charts is a chart-driven macro research house covering global asset allocation and economics. ​ 

Topdown Charts covers multiple economies, markets, and asset classes with a distinct chart-driven focus to bring valuable insights to investors, portfolio managers, and finance professionals. The perspective is that of an investor, and the multi-asset scope lends itself to both asset allocators and asset class specific portfolio managers. 

The flagship product of the Topdown Charts institutional service is the "Weekly Macro Themes"​ - a must read weekly publication that covers key issues in global macroeconomics and asset allocation. The Weekly Macro Themes will give you investment ideas, present you with numerous useful charts that you can use in your work, provoke thought and debate, and cover the key issues as well as some more obscure topics and indicators.​

 

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Title Date
Weekly Macro Themes - 31 Aug 2018 2018/08/31
Weekly Macro Themes - 24 Aug 2018 2018/08/24
Weekly Macro Themes - 17 Aug 2018 2018/08/19
Weekly Macro Themes - 10 Aug 2018 2018/08/10
Weekly Macro Themes - 3 Aug 2018 2018/08/05
Weekly Macro Themes - 27 July 2018 2018/07/27
Weekly Macro Themes - 20 July 2018 2018/07/20
Monthly Chartbook - July 2018 2018/07/19
Weekly Macro Themes - 13 July 2018 2018/07/15
Weekly Macro Themes - 6 Apr 2018 2018/04/06
Weekly Macro Themes - 30 Mar 2018 2018/03/30
Weekly Macro Themes - 2 Feb 2018 2018/02/02
Weekly Macro Themes - 26 Jan 2018 2018/01/26
Weekly Macro Themes - 19 Jan 2018 2018/01/19
Weekly Macro Themes - 12 Jan 2018 2018/01/13
Weekly Macro Themes - End of Year Special Edition 2017 2017/12/21
Weekly Macro Themes - 15 Dec 2017 2017/12/15
Weekly Macro Themes - 8 Dec 2017 2017/12/10
Weekly Macro Themes - 1 Dec 2017 2017/12/01
Weekly Macro Themes - 24 November 2017 2017/11/26
Weekly Macro Themes - 17 Nov 2017 2017/11/16
Weekly Macro Themes - 10 Nov 2017 2017/11/10
Weekly Macro Themes - 3 Nov 2017 2017/11/03
Weekly Macro Themes - 27 Oct 2017 2017/10/27
Weekly Macro Themes - 20 Oct 2017 2017/10/20
Weekly Macro Themes - 13 Oct 2017 2017/10/13
Weekly Macro Themes - 29 Sep 2017 2017/09/29
Weekly Macro Themes - 22 September 2017 2017/09/25
Weekly Macro Themes - 15 Sep 2017 2017/09/18
Weekly Macro Themes - 8 September 2017 2017/09/10
Weekly Macro Themes - 1 Sep 2017 2017/09/04
Weekly Macro Themes - 25 August 2017 2017/08/28
Weekly Macro Themes - 18 Aug 2017 2017/08/20
Weekly Macro Themes - 11 Aug 2017 2017/08/14
Weekly Macro Themes - 4 Aug 2017 2017/08/04
Weekly Macro Themes - 28 July 2017 2017/07/28
Weekly Macro Themes - 21 July 2017 2017/07/21
Topdown Charts - Monthly Chartbook - July 2017 2017/07/18
Weekly Macro Themes - 14 July 2017 2017/07/14
Weekly Macro Themes - 7 July 2017 2017/07/07
Weekly Macro Themes - 30 June 2017 2017/06/30
Weekly Macro Themes - 23 June 2017 2017/06/23
Weekly Macro Themes - 16 June 2017 2017/06/16
Weekly Macro Themes - 9 June 2017 2017/06/09
Weekly Macro Themes - 2 June 2017 2017/06/02
Weekly Macro Themes: Global macro, Eurozone inflation, Cyclicals, Expected Returns, NZDUSD 2017/05/26
Weekly Macro Themes: Commercial property, Commodities, China, Asian equities, Aussie credit 2017/05/19
Weekly Macro Themes: Credit growth, VIX, volatility, bonds, and EM risk 2017/05/12
Weekly Macro Themes - 5 May 2017 2017/05/05
Weekly Macro Themes: Global trade, gold, high yield credit, REITs, grains 2017/04/28
Weekly Macro Themes: European equities, Chinese yuan, income assets 2017/04/24
Weekly Macro Themes: Global tides, China cycles, Emerging markets, North Korea 2017/04/14
Weekly Macro Themes: Inflation returns, Indian rebound, Economic Noise, Stock market leverage 2017/04/07
Weekly Macro Themes: Global economy, China and Copper, Euro trend change 2017/03/31
Weekly Macro Themes - A Big Turning Point? 2017/03/24
Weekly Macro Themes: Fed thoughts, China investment, Japanese stocks, Irish equities 2017/03/17
Weekly Macro Themes: Reflation, China CPI, Aussie dollar, Commodities, CAPE 2017/03/10
Weekly Macro Themes: Fed thoughts, HY Credit outlook, From deflation to... 2017/03/03
Weekly Macro Themes - 24 Feb 2017 2017/02/24
Weekly Macro Themes - 17 Feb 2017 2017/02/17
Weekly Macro Themes - 10 Feb 2017 2017/02/10
Weekly Macro Themes - 3 Feb 2017 - Commodities Special 2017/02/02
Weekly Macro Themes - 27 January 2017 2017/01/27
Weekly Macro Themes - China Special 2017/01/20
Weekly Macro Themes - 13 January 2017 2017/01/13
[FREE] Weekly Macro Themes - End of Year Special Edition 2016/12/20
Weekly Macro Themes - 16 December 2016 2016/12/16
Weekly Macro Themes - 9 December 2016 2016/12/09
Weekly Macro Themes - 2 December 2016 2016/12/02
Weekly Macro Themes - 25 November 2016 2016/11/25
Weekly Macro Themes - 18 November 2016 2016/11/18
Weekly Macro Themes - 11 November 2016 2016/11/11

Analysts

  • Callum Thomas

    Head of Research
Callum Thomas

Weekly Macro Themes - 31 Aug 2018

1. European Equities:  After some notable changes in our sentiment and macro/earnings pulse indicators we check in on the risk vs reward outlook for Eurozone equities.   2. UK Equities:  Should we Brexit or Bremain in UK equities?  That's the question we address and also take a look at the cable (GPBUSD), with a couple of surprising charts.  3. US REITs:  We take a look at relative value, absolute value, and the key drivers and risks for US REITs.  4. MLPs & Energy Stocks:  Are MLPs really cheap? Are they worth buying? What about energy stocks? and how does the oil price play into the risk/...

Callum Thomas

Weekly Macro Themes - 24 Aug 2018

This week the 5 topics are: 1. Yield Curve Views:  We look at a couple of key macroeconomic cycle indicators which help put the yield curve flattening in proper context and explain why it matters for asset allocation.  2. China Property Update:  The July data calls into question the bearish outlook on Chinese property as prices accelerate on the back of easier financing conditions. We examine the key variables.  3. China A Shares:  A look at what has changed in the outlook for Chinese stocks based on valuation metrics, earnings pulse, macro indicators, and a couple of unusual charts.  4. A...

Callum Thomas

Weekly Macro Themes - 17 Aug 2018

This week the 5 topics are:  1. Deflation Risk:  We look at a series of unique indicators on reflation trade positioning, risk-on/risk-off, commodities, and the prospects of deflation risk.  2. Emerging Market Equities:  We outline the key short term and long term drivers to arrive at a conclusion that EM Equities face long term gain, but short term pain.  3. Flows and Allocations:  US investor sentiment and allocations have been little shaken through the correction, but that could change as US markets face a decoupling test.   4. Global Equity Market Breadth:  The breadth picture for globa...

Callum Thomas

Weekly Macro Themes - 10 Aug 2018

The 5 topics this week are:    1. Global Cyclicals vs Defensives:  Cyclicals vs defensives remain on-watch as a risk to global equities should a bearish rotation take hold, and particularly so in the US.  We show with charts how the situation is unfolding and what investors should be paying attention to.  2. US Credit Conditions:  US credit conditions continue to improve, providing a supportive funding backdrop for growth.  See how this ties into the outlook for US HY credit.  3. US Investment Boom:  There is a distinct possibility we might see an investment boom in America. Our charts and ...

Callum Thomas

Weekly Macro Themes - 3 Aug 2018

**In this week's edition I walk through a few ideas and themes I discussed with clients and investors on a recent trip.  1. USDCNY: The path of least resistance for the USDCNY is higher - find out why we think this.   2. US Dollar Index: The case for USD strength in H2 is compelling based on the charts and indicators we monitor as well as the key macro themes we've highlighted.  3. Emerging Markets: EM face elevated near-term macro downside risks based on a couple of key macro themes, our charts and indicators illustrate how this might playout.  4. Gold: Gold may not turn out to be the hed...

Callum Thomas

Weekly Macro Themes - 3 Feb 2017 - Commodities Special

​This week it's a commodity special!1. Asset class level view of commodities: An index level view of several indicators including implied volatility, futures positioning, market breadth, and correlation with GDP growth and the implications for the outlook.2. Crude oil: The outlook for crude oil prices based on volatility compression, seasonality, option pricing, speculative futures activity, and the changing supply and demand dynamics.3. Gold: Balancing the short-term signals from key technical indicators vs the fundamental headwinds of a stronger dollar and rising real yields - some key chart...

Callum Thomas

Weekly Macro Themes - 31 Aug 2018

1. European Equities:  After some notable changes in our sentiment and macro/earnings pulse indicators we check in on the risk vs reward outlook for Eurozone equities.   2. UK Equities:  Should we Brexit or Bremain in UK equities?  That's the question we address and also take a look at the cable (GPBUSD), with a couple of surprising charts.  3. US REITs:  We take a look at relative value, absolute value, and the key drivers and risks for US REITs.  4. MLPs & Energy Stocks:  Are MLPs really cheap? Are they worth buying? What about energy stocks? and how does the oil price play into the risk/...

Callum Thomas

Weekly Macro Themes - 24 Aug 2018

This week the 5 topics are: 1. Yield Curve Views:  We look at a couple of key macroeconomic cycle indicators which help put the yield curve flattening in proper context and explain why it matters for asset allocation.  2. China Property Update:  The July data calls into question the bearish outlook on Chinese property as prices accelerate on the back of easier financing conditions. We examine the key variables.  3. China A Shares:  A look at what has changed in the outlook for Chinese stocks based on valuation metrics, earnings pulse, macro indicators, and a couple of unusual charts.  4. A...

Callum Thomas

Weekly Macro Themes - 17 Aug 2018

This week the 5 topics are:  1. Deflation Risk:  We look at a series of unique indicators on reflation trade positioning, risk-on/risk-off, commodities, and the prospects of deflation risk.  2. Emerging Market Equities:  We outline the key short term and long term drivers to arrive at a conclusion that EM Equities face long term gain, but short term pain.  3. Flows and Allocations:  US investor sentiment and allocations have been little shaken through the correction, but that could change as US markets face a decoupling test.   4. Global Equity Market Breadth:  The breadth picture for globa...

Callum Thomas

Weekly Macro Themes - 10 Aug 2018

The 5 topics this week are:    1. Global Cyclicals vs Defensives:  Cyclicals vs defensives remain on-watch as a risk to global equities should a bearish rotation take hold, and particularly so in the US.  We show with charts how the situation is unfolding and what investors should be paying attention to.  2. US Credit Conditions:  US credit conditions continue to improve, providing a supportive funding backdrop for growth.  See how this ties into the outlook for US HY credit.  3. US Investment Boom:  There is a distinct possibility we might see an investment boom in America. Our charts and ...

Callum Thomas

Weekly Macro Themes - 3 Aug 2018

**In this week's edition I walk through a few ideas and themes I discussed with clients and investors on a recent trip.  1. USDCNY: The path of least resistance for the USDCNY is higher - find out why we think this.   2. US Dollar Index: The case for USD strength in H2 is compelling based on the charts and indicators we monitor as well as the key macro themes we've highlighted.  3. Emerging Markets: EM face elevated near-term macro downside risks based on a couple of key macro themes, our charts and indicators illustrate how this might playout.  4. Gold: Gold may not turn out to be the hed...

Callum Thomas

Weekly Macro Themes: Credit growth, VIX, volatility, bonds, and EM risk

​Here's a brief preview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report.1. US Credit Growth: These charts show an impending rebound in credit growth in the US, which is an important dynamic given the labour market is running at full capacity.2. The VIX, risk, and volatility: A look at some single factor VIX models points to a generally lower level of the VIX but then even by these metrics it looks low. We note how low volatility doesn't always mean low risk.3. Volatility part 2 - a different view: Cross asset volatility is heading lower and cross-correl...

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