Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2019 04 24
STZ currently trades near recent highs relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 28.3x Uniform P/E. However, even at these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to compress from 24% in 2018 to 15% in 2023, accompanied by 12% Uniform Asset growth going forward. Meanwhile, analysts have even more bearish expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to fade to 14% in 2020, accompanied by Uniform Asset growth of 33%, driven by the acquisition of Canopy Growth. That said, management is confident in their Corona Familiar line, Mexicali capacity expansion, and Canopy guidance. Should STZ just sustain profitability near recent averages, as positive management sentiment would suggest, upside would be warranted.LOW Q4 2018 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for continued Uniform ROA expansion, but management has concerns about segment performance, distribution, and cost reduction
VMC Q4 2018 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA expansion, but management may have concerns about costs, weather-related headwinds, and demand
ZM Fundamental Analysis – Market expectations are for material improvements in Uniform ROA, driven by customer base expansion, ARPU increases, and product differentiation
ACN, BMRN, CELG, DUK, ORCL, PD, PINS, QCOM, RECN, STZ, TMUS
BioMarin Pharmaceutical is a biotechnology company that develops and commercializes therapies for people with serious and life-threatening rare diseases and medical conditions. The company's commercial products are Aldurazyme (laronidase) for Mucopolysaccharidosis I; Brineura (cerliponase alfa) for the treatment of late infantile neuronal ceroid lipofuscinosis type 2; Kuvan (sapropterin dihydrochloride) for the treatment of phenylketonuria; Naglazyme (galsulfase) the treatment of Mucopolysaccharidosis VI ; Palynziq (pegvaliase-pqpz) for adult patients with phenylketonuria; and Vimizim (elosulfase alpha) for the treatment of Mucopolysaccharidosis IV Type A.
Celgene is a global biopharmaceutical company engaged primarily in the discovery, development and commercialization of therapies for the treatment of cancer and inflammatory diseases through solutions in protein homeostasis, immuno-oncology, epigenetics, immunology and neuro-inflammation. The company's primary commercial stage products include: REVLIMID?, an oral immunomodulatory drug; POMALYST?/IMNOVID?, a proprietary, small molecule; OTEZLA?, an oral small-molecule inhibitor of phosphodiesterase 4 for cyclic adenosine monophosphate; ABRAXANE?, a solvent-free chemotherapy product; and VIDAZA?, a pyrimidine nucleoside analog. In addition, the company provides other product sales and licensing arrangements.
Constellation Brands is an international beverage alcohol company. The company is a producer and marketer of beer, wine and spirits with operations in the U.S., Mexico, New Zealand, Italy and Canada. The company has two segments: Beer, in which the company is engaged in the U.S. beer market that includes the imported, craft, domestic super premium, and alternative beverage alcohol categories and it has the right to import, market and sell these Mexican beer brands in the U.S.; and Wine and Spirits, in which its wine portfolio is supported by grapes purchased from independent growers, primarily in the U.S., New Zealand and Chile, and vineyard holdings in the U.S., New Zealand and Italy.
Duke Energy is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company operates as an energy company. The company's segments include: Electric Utilities and Infrastructure, which provides retail electric service through the generation, transmission, distribution and sale of electricity to customers within the Southeast and Midwest regions of the United States; Gas Utilities and Infrastructure, which conducts natural gas operations, as well as owns, operates and has investments in various pipeline transmission and natural gas storage facilities; and Commercial Renewables, which acquires, develops, builds, operates and owns wind and solar renewable generation throughout the continental United States.
Lowe's Companies is a home improvement retailer. The company provides home improvement products in lumber and building materials, appliances, seasonal and outdoor living, tools and hardware, fashion fixtures, rough plumbing and electrical, paint, millwork, lawn and garden, flooring, and kitchens categories. The company provides installation services through independent contractors in product categories, including appliances, flooring, kitchens, lumber and building materials, and millwork. The company also provides extended protection plans for various products within the appliances, kitchens, fashion fixtures, millwork, rough plumbing and electrical, seasonal and outdoor living, and tools and hardware categories.
Oracle provides products and services that address enterprise information technology (IT) environments. The company's products and services include applications and infrastructure offerings. The company's cloud and license business engages in the sale, marketing and delivery of its applications and infrastructure technologies through cloud and on-premise deployment models including its cloud services and license support offerings; and its cloud license and on-premise license offerings. The company's hardware business provides Oracle Engineered Systems, servers, storage, industry-specific hardware, operating systems, virtualization, management and other hardware-related software to support diverse IT environments.
Qualcomm is engaged in the development and commercialization of foundational technologies for the wireless industry. The company's segments include: Qualcomm CDMA Technologies, which is a developer and supplier of integrated circuits and system software based on code division multiple access, orthogonal frequency division multiple access and other technologies; Qualcomm Technology Licensing, which grants licenses or otherwise provides rights to use portions of its intellectual property portfolio, which, among other rights, include certain patent rights essential to and/or useful in the manufacture and sale of certain wireless products; and Qualcomm Strategic Initiatives, which makes investments.
Resources Connection is a consulting firm. The company serves its clients with talent in support of projects and initiatives in a range of functional areas, including: business strategy and transformation, which includes program and project management, change management, transaction advisory, executive search, human resources, supply chain, and legal; risk and compliance, which includes information security and privacy; internal audit and compliance; finance and accounting, which includes lease accounting, and revenue recognition; and technology and digital, which includes business technology, and data analytics.
T-Mobile US provides mobile communications services, including voice, messaging and data, under its brands, T-Mobile and Metro? by T-Mobile, in the United States, Puerto Rico and the United States Virgin Islands. The company provides mobile communications services using its 4G Long-Term Evolution network and its 5G technology network. The company also provides various wireless devices, including handsets, tablets and other mobile communication devices, and accessories for sale, as well as financing through Equipment Installment Plans and leasing through JUMP! On Demand?. The company provides reinsurance for handset insurance policies and extended warranty contracts offered to its mobile communications customers.
Vulcan Materials is a supplier of construction aggregates and a producer of asphalt mix and ready-mixed concrete. The company has four segments: Aggregates, which produces and sells aggregates (crushed stone, sand and gravel, sand, and other aggregates) and related products and services; Asphalt, which produces and sells asphalt mix in Alabama, Arizona, California, New Mexico, Tennessee and Texas, and includes asphalt construction paving in Alabama, Tennessee and Texas; Concrete, which produces and sells ready-mixed concrete; and Calcium, which consists of a Florida facility that mines, produces and sells calcium products.
In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:
- GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
- Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
- Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
- Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available
We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.
- Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
- Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
- Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
- The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming
The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.
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