Report
Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2018 04 25

LIN:DEU currently trades near historical highs relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Assets, with a 1.6x Uniform P/B. At these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to increase from 6% in 2017 to record-high 8% levels in 2022, accompanied by immaterial Uniform Asset growth going forward. Analysts have similar expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to improve to 7% by 2019, accompanied by 1% Uniform Asset shrinkage. However, Valens' qualitative analysis of the firm's Q4 2017 earnings call highlights that management has concerns about efficiency, margins, and growth. At current valuations, markets are pricing in a near-best-case scenario for LIN, and considering management concerns about their outlook, any negative surprise could lead to material equity downside.

First three highlighted companies headline0941:HKG Fundamental Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for China Mobile to see Uniform ROA decline further from recent lows, driven by increasing competition and the 5G transition

AAPL Q1 2018 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for material declines in Uniform ROA, but management is confident in their capital allocation plans, the iPhone, and customer satisfaction

FDX Q3 2018 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for record-high Uniform ROA, but management has concerns about demand, operating profit, and competitive differentiation

TW.:GBR Fundamental Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for TW. to see Uniform ROA decline from recent highs, driven by uncertainty surrounding Brexit and margin declines

2330:TAI, 6501:JPN, CAH, CDK, DNR, GRBK, IBM, INTC, KR, LUV, MU, PFE, PSN:GBR, SPY, STZ, TXT
Underlyings
Apple Inc.

Apple designs, manufactures and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related services. The company's products include: iPhone; Mac; iPad; and wearables, home and accessories, which includes AirPods?, Apple TV?, Apple Watch?, Beats? products, HomePod?, iPod touch? and other Apple-branded and third-party accessories. The company's services include: digital content stores and streaming services; AppleCare, which includes AppleCare + (AC+) and the AppleCare Protection Plan; iCloud, which is the company's cloud service; licensing; and other services, which include Apple Arcade?, Apple Card?, Apple News+, and Apple Pay, a cashless payment service.

Cardinal Health Inc.

Cardinal Health is a healthcare services and products company providing customized solutions for hospitals, healthcare systems, pharmacies, ambulatory surgery centers, clinical laboratories and physician offices. The company's segments include: Pharmaceutical and Medical. The company's Pharmaceutical segment distributes branded and generic pharmaceutical, specialty pharmaceutical and over-the-counter healthcare and consumer products in the United States. The company's Medical segment manufactures, sources and distributes Cardinal Health branded medical, surgical and laboratory products, which are sold in the United States, Canada, Europe, Asia and other markets.

CDK Global Inc.

CDK Global is a provider of subscription-based software and technology solutions for automotive retailers. The company is organized into two main operating groups, which are also reportable segments: CDK North America, which provides technology-based solutions, including its Dealer Management System (DMS) products and data management and business intelligence solutions; and CDK International, which provides automotive retailers with primary DMS solutions and provides automotive retailers and original equipment manufacturers a variety of services, custom programming, consulting, implementation and training solutions, as well as customer support solutions outside of the United States and Canada.

China Mobile Limited

China Mobile and its subsidiaries are engaged in the provision of mobile telecommunications and related services principally using the Global System for Mobile Communications standard and the Time Division Synchronous Code Division Multiple Access standard. In addition, Co. provides its customers with internet access through wireless local area networks. Co. also develops and carries its 4G business based on the TDD mode long-term evolution technology. As of Dec 31 2013, Co. had approx. 767,200,000 customers in all 31 provinces, autonomous regions and directly-administered municipalities in the People's Republic of China as well as in Hong Kong.

Constellation Brands Inc. Class A

Constellation Brands is an international beverage alcohol company. The company is a producer and marketer of beer, wine and spirits with operations in the U.S., Mexico, New Zealand, Italy and Canada. The company has two segments: Beer, in which the company is engaged in the U.S. beer market that includes the imported, craft, domestic super premium, and alternative beverage alcohol categories and it has the right to import, market and sell these Mexican beer brands in the U.S.; and Wine and Spirits, in which its wine portfolio is supported by grapes purchased from independent growers, primarily in the U.S., New Zealand and Chile, and vineyard holdings in the U.S., New Zealand and Italy.

Denbury Resources Inc.

Denbury Resources is an independent oil and natural gas company. The company's operations are focused in two main operating areas: the Gulf Coast and Rocky Mountain regions. The company's properties with proved and producing reserves in the Gulf Coast region are situated in Mississippi, Texas, Louisiana and Alabama, and in the Rocky Mountain region are situated in Montana, North Dakota and Wyoming.

FedEx Corporation

FedEx provides transportation, e-commerce and business services through companies under the FedEx brand. These companies are included in the following segments: Federal Express Corporation, including TNT Express B.V., is an express transportation company; FedEx Ground Package System, Inc., which is a provider of small-package ground delivery services; FedEx Freight Corporation, which is a provider of less-than-truckload freight services; and FedEx Corporate Services, Inc., which provides sales, marketing, information technology, communications, customer service, technical support, billing and collections services, and certain back-office functions.

Green Brick Partners

Green Brick Partners is a homebuilding and land development company. The company acquires and develops land, provides land and construction financing to its controlled builders and participates in the profits of its builders. The company is engaged in homebuilding process, including land acquisition and development, entitlements, design, construction, title and mortgage services, marketing and sales and the creation of brand images at its residential neighborhoods and communities. The company sells finished lots to its controlled builders or option lots from third-party developers for its controlled builders' homebuilding operations and provides them with construction financing and strategic planning.

Hitachi Ltd.

Hitachi and its subsidiaries are engaged in the development, manufacture and sale of diversified product mix ranging from electricity generation systems to consumer products and electronic devices. Co.'s businesses are diverse, and include information and telecommunication systems, social infrastructure and industrial systems, electronic systems and equipment, construction machinery, high functional materials and components, automotive systems, life & eco systems, financial services, and others including logistics services, optical disk drive, as well as real estate business.

Intel Corporation

Intel is a data-centric company. The company's operating segments are: Data Center Group, which develops platforms for compute, storage, and network functions; Internet of Things Group, which facilitates its customers creating, storing, and processing data; Mobileye, which provides assistance and automation solutions; Non-Volatile Memory Solutions Group, which provides memory and storage products based on Intel? Optane? technology and Intel? 3D NAND technology; Programmable Solutions Group, which provides programmable semiconductors; and Client Computing Group, which connects people to data, allowing each person to focus, create, and engage in ways that unlock their individual potential.

International Business Machines Corporation

International Business Machines provides integrated solutions and products that utilize data, information technology, capability in industries and business processes. The company has five segments: Cloud and Cognitive Software, which provides a range of software offerings; Global Business Services, which provides consulting, systems integration, application management and business process outsourcing services; Global Technology Services, which provides project services, managed and outsourcing services, cloud-delivered services, and technical and IT support services; Systems, which provides technology and service; and Global Financing, which provides client financing, among others.

Kroger Co.

Kroger operates as a retailer. The company also manufacture and process some of the food for sale in its supermarkets. Supermarkets are operated under one of the following formats: combination food and drug stores (combo stores); multi-department stores; marketplace stores; or price impact warehouses. The combo stores provide food and organic sections, pharmacies, general merchandise, pet centers and perishables such as seafood and organic produce. Marketplace provide grocery, pharmacy and health and beauty care departments as well as perishable offering and general merchandise area that includes apparel, home goods and toys.

LINDE AG

Linde is a gases and engineering company based in Germany. Co. operates through two divisions. The Gases division provides a range of compressed and liquefied gases as well as chemicals. Co.'s gases are used in the energy sector, in steel production, chemical processing, environmental protection, and welding, as well as in food processing, glass production and electronics. The Engineering division is engaged in industrial plants construction globally, focusing on market segments such as plants for the production of hydrogen and synthesis gas, air separation and olefins as well as plants for natural gas treatment.

Micron Technology Inc.

Micron Technology provides memory and storage solutions. The company's portfolio of memory and storage technologies include Dynamic Random Access Memory, Not And, 3D XPoint? memory, and Not Or. The company's segments are: Compute and Networking Business, which includes memory products sold into client, cloud server, enterprise, graphics, and networking markets; Mobile Business, which includes memory products sold into smartphone and other mobile-device markets; Storage Business, which includes Solid-State Drives and component-level solutions sold into enterprise and cloud, client, and consumer storage markets; and Embedded Business, which includes memory and storage products.

Persimmon Plc

Persimmon is a holding company, engaged in house building, constructing a range of homes across England, Scotland and Wales. Co. trades under the brand names of: Persimmon Homes, which delivers a range of new homes from apartments to large family homes throughout the U.K.; Charles Church, which complements Persimmon by delivering executive housing in premium locations across the U.K.; Westbury Partnerships, which focuses on affordable social housing. Co. sells these homes to housing associations across the U.K.; and Space4, which operates an offsite manufacturing plant producing insulated wall panels and roof cassettes as a fabric first solution to the construction of new homes.

Pfizer Inc.

Pfizer is a research-based biopharmaceutical company. The company is engaged in discovering, developing, manufacturing and distributing of healthcare products, including medicines and vaccines. The company manages its commercial operations through three businesses: Pfizer Biopharmaceuticals Group, which includes Oncology, Inflammation and Immunology, Rare Disease, Hospital, Vaccines and Internal Medicine business units, as well as a hospital business unit; Upjohn, which includes the company's solid oral dose brands such as Lyrica, Lipitor, Norvasc, Celebrex, Viagra, and certain generic medicines; and Consumer Healthcare, which is an over-the-counter medicines business.

SOUTHWEST AIRLINES CO

Southwest Airlines operates Southwest Airlines, a passenger airline that provides scheduled air transportation in the United States and near-international markets. The company has Boeing 737 aircraft in its fleet and serves destinations in various states, the District of Columbia, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, and other near-international countries such as Mexico, Jamaica, The Bahamas, Aruba, Dominican Republic, Costa Rica, Belize, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Turks and Caicos. The company principally provides point-to-point service, which allows for direct nonstop routing. The company also provides a suite of digital platforms to support Customers' needs prior to and during the course of their travel.

SPDR S&P 500 ETF

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is a foundry in the semiconductor industry which engages mainly in the manufacturing, selling, packaging, testing and computer-aided design of integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices and the manufacturing of masks. Co. also engages in the researching, developing, designing, manufacturing and selling of solid state lighting devices and related applications products and systems, and renewable energy and efficiency related technologies and products. Co.'s products include logic semiconductors, mixed-signal/radio frequency semiconductors, CMOS image sensor semiconductors and high voltage semiconductors.

Taylor Wimpey plc

Taylor Wimpey is a residential developer. Co.'s three divisions are: North, which covers its East and West Scotland, North East, North Yorkshire, Yorkshire, North West, Manchester, North Midlands, Midlands and West Midlands regional businesses; Central and South West, which covers its East Midlands, South Midlands, East Anglia, Oxfordshire, South Wales, Bristol, Southern Counties and Exeter regional businesses; and London and South East, which includes Central London and covers its East London, North Thames, South East, South Thames and West London regional businesses. In Spain, Co. builds homes in the locations of Costa Blanca, Costa del Sol and the islands of Mallorca and Ibiza.

Textron Inc.

Textron is a multi-industry company. The company's segments include: Textron Aviation, which manufactures, sells and services Beechcraft and Cessna aircraft, and services the Hawker brand of business jets; Bell, which supplies military and commercial helicopters, tiltrotor aircraft, and related spare parts and services; Textron Systems, which includes unmanned systems, marine and land systems, and simulation, training and other; Industrial, which designs and manufactures a variety of products within fuel systems and functional components and specialized vehicles product lines; and Finance, which provides financing to purchasers of new and pre-owned Textron Aviation aircraft and Bell helicopters.

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In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

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  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

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