Report
Valens Research

NEE - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 11 18

NextEra Energy (NEE) currently trades near historical and above corporate averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 28.4x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to expand, accompanied by 5% Uniform asset growth.

Similarly, analysts expect Uniform ROA to rise to 9% in 2022, accompanied by 6% Uniform asset growth.

If sustained going forward, these levels would imply a stock price closer to $69, representing 19% equity downside for the firm.

Moreover, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management may have concerns about their acquisitions, the clean energy transformation, and FPL.
Underlying
NextEra Energy Inc.

NextEra Energy is a holding company, engaged in electric power and energy infrastructure. The company has two principal businesses, Florida Power & Light Company (FPL) and NextEra Energy Resources, LLC (NEER). FPL is a rate-regulated electric utility engaged primarily in the generation, transmission, distribution and sale of electric energy in Florida. FPL provides service to its electric customers through a transmission and distribution system that links its generation facilities to its customers. NEER, through its subsidiaries, owns, develops, constructs, manages and operates electric generation facilities in wholesale energy markets primarily in the United States and Canada.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

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Valens Research

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