Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Upgrading Utilities to OverweightThe S&P 500 (SPX) is back near YTD highs and testing resistance in the 5670-5783 range, and we view this as an ideal time to reduce risk and shift to defensives. We continue to believe that the SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern. To recap, (1) in our 7/30/24 and 8/6/24 Compass reports we discussed how 5100-5191 was our target/bounce area on SPX, (2) we downgraded our long-term outlook to neutral in our 8/6/24 Compass (where we remain) after being bullish since early-November 2023, (3) we laid out our expectations in our 8/13/24 Compass for the SPX to bounce (led by NVDA and SMH) and test YTD highs or potentially make a lower high near the 5400 or 5585 levels (though it did move above 5400 and 5585). We now expect the SPX to roll over near current levels, consistent with prior major topping patterns that occurred in April 2000, August 2007, and February 2022 which we have talked about the prior two weeks. Our main concerns include outperformance from defensive Sectors and potentially toppy price action in this bull market's leaders (NVDA, SMH, META) alongside a weakening labor market/possible recession (Sahm rule and Schannep Recession Indicator have both triggered) and a Fed that is behind the curve on its cutting cycle, which, by the way, have historically not been good environments for stocks (e.g., Jan. 2001 and Oct. 2007).
Upgrading Utilities. We are upgrading Utilities (XLU) to overweight with RS forming a gradual uptrend -- add exposure. NextEra (NEE) is our favorite large-cap name within Utilities. Utilities has been the best-performing defensive Sector, but the others (Staples, Health Care, and Real Estate) could very well follow in Utilities' footsteps... see charts below.
Big Picture Trends. All eyes will be on NVDA's earnings this Wednesday after market close -- and rightly so. It has been the clear leader during this bull market, and we see signs of a potential top forming. Several other mega-cap leaders also display potential topping patterns, including AMZN, META, and MSFT. The bounce for large-cap growth, and more specifically NVDA and SMH, that we discussed to expect in our 8/13/24 Compass could very well be over. In addition to the SPX, other indexes testing multi-month resistances include the Dow, S&P Mid-Caps (IJH), Russell 2000 (IWM), retail (XRT), and emerging markets (EEM). WTI crude oil and the Bloomberg Commodity index (DJP) are testing critical supports. The Cyclicals vs. Staples ratio is neutral...
Alliant Energy is a public utility holding company, engaged in providing regulated electric and natural gas service. The company's subsidiaries are: Interstate Power and Light Company, which is engaged principally in the generation and distribution of electricity and the distribution and transportation of natural gas to retail customers in select markets in Iowa; Wisconsin Power and Light Company, which is engaged principally in the generation and distribution of electricity and the distribution and transportation of natural gas to retail customers in select markets in Wisconsin; and Alliant Energy Finance, LLC, which manages a portfolio of wholly-owned subsidiaries and additional holdings.
Ameren is a public utility holding company. Through its subsidiary, Union Electric Company, the company operates a rate-regulated electric generation, transmission, and distribution business and a rate-regulated natural gas distribution business in Missouri. Through its subsidiary, Ameren Illinois Company, the company operates rate-regulated electric transmission, electric distribution, and natural gas distribution businesses in Illinois. Through its Ameren Transmission Company of Illinois subsidiary, the company operates a Federal Energy Regulatory Commission rate-regulated electric transmission business. The company also has other subsidiaries that conduct other activities, such as providing shared services.
Atmos Energy is engaged in the regulated natural gas distribution and pipeline and storage businesses. The company delivers natural gas through regulated sales and transportation arrangements to residential, commercial, public-authority and industrial customers. The company's segments are: Distribution, which is comprised of its regulated natural gas distribution and related sales operations; and Pipeline and Storage, which consists of the pipeline and storage operations of its Atmos Pipeline-Texas Division (APT) and its natural gas transmission operations in Louisiana. APT has intrastate pipeline operations in Texas with a focus on the natural gas-producing areas of central, northern and eastern Texas.
Black Hills is a utility holding company, which operates in four segments: Electric Utilities, which generates, transmits and distributes electricity to electric utility customers in Colorado, Montana, South Dakota and Wyoming; Gas Utilities, which serves natural gas utility customers in Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, and Wyoming; Power Generation, which produces electric power from its wind, natural gas and coal-fired generating plants and sells the electric capacity and energy primarily to its utilities under long-term contracts; and Mining, which produces coal at its mine near Gillette, WY, and sells it under long-term contracts to mine-mouth electric generation facilities.
CMS Energy is a holding company. The company has several subsidiaries, including: Consumers Energy Company, an electric and gas utility that serves individuals and businesses operating in the alternative energy, automotive, chemical, food, and metal products industries, as well as a group of other industries; CMS Enterprises Company, through its subsidiaries and equity investments, is engaged in domestic independent power production, including the development and operation of renewable generation, and the marketing of independent power production; and EnerBank USA, an industrial bank located in Utah that provides unsecured consumer installment loans, primarily for financing home improvements.
DTE Energy is a holding company. The company is engaged in the generation, purchase, distribution and sale of electricity to customers in southeastern Michigan through its DTE Electric Company subsidiary, as well as in the purchase, storage, transportation, distribution and sale of natural gas throughout Michigan and the sale of storage and transportation capacity through its DTE Gas Company subsidiary. The company's non-utility operations are: gas storage and pipelines, which consists of natural gas pipeline, gathering, transportation, and storage businesses; power and industrial projects; and energy trading, which consists of energy marketing and trading operations.
Entergy is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is an integrated energy company engaged mainly in electric power production and retail distribution operations. The company owns and operates power plants. The company has two segments: Utility, which generates, transmits, distributes and sells electric power to retail and wholesale customers in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas; and Entergy Wholesale Commodities, which includes the ownership, operation, and decommissioning of nuclear power plants, located in the northern United States, the sale of the electric power produced by its operating plants to wholesale customers, and also provides services to other nuclear power plant owners.
Exelon is a utility services holding company engaged in the generation, delivery and marketing of energy through Exelon Generation Company, LLC and the energy distribution and transmission businesses through Commonwealth Edison Company, PECO Energy Company, Baltimore Gas and Electric Company, Potomac Electric Power Company, Delmarva Power & Light Company and Atlantic City Electric Company. Through its business services subsidiary Exelon Business Services Company, LLC, the company provides its subsidiaries with a variety of support services.
Fortis is principally an international electric and gas utility holding company. Co. also holds investments in non-regulated generation assets. Co.'s business segments are: Regulated Electric & Gas Utilities - United States; Regulated Gas Utility - Canadian; Regulated Electric Utilities - Canadian; Regulated Electric Utilities - Caribbean; Non-Regulated - Fortis Generation; Non-regulated - Non-Utility; and Corporate and Other. Its regulated utilities served more than 3.0 million customers across Canada and in New York State and the Caribbean. Co. also holds investments in non-regulated generation assets in Canada and Belize, through Fortis Generation.
NiSource is an energy holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a natural gas distribution company. The company's reportable segments are: Gas Distribution Operations and Electric Operations. For its gas distribution operations, through its wholly-owned subsidiary, NiSource Gas Distribution Group, Inc., the company owns distribution subsidiaries that provide natural gas to residential, commercial and industrial customers in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Kentucky, Maryland and Massachusetts. Through its electric operations, the company generates, transmits and distributes electricity through its subsidiary, Northern Indiana Public Service Company LLC, and engages in wholesale and transmission transactions.
Oneok is a midstream service provider. The company's segments include: Natural Gas Gathering and Processing, which provides midstream services to producers in North Dakota, Montana, Wyoming, Kansas and Oklahoma; natural gas liquids (NGLs), which owns and operates facilities that gather, fractionate, treat and distribute NGLs and store NGL products, primarily in Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, New Mexico and the Rocky Mountain region; and Natural Gas Pipelines, which provides transportation and storage services to end users through its wholly owned assets and its ownership interests in Northern Border Pipeline Company and Roadrunner Gas Transmission, LLC.
Palace Capital is a property investment company that focuses on commercial real estate outside London. Co. invests in refurbishment and capital development programmes within the existing portfolio to unlock capital growth, as well as invests in commercial real estate in the U.K. Co.'s property portfolio includes investment properties located throughout England, predominantly regional investments outside London and comprises a diverse portfolio of commercial buildings.
PPL is a utility holding company. Through its regulated utility subsidiaries, the company delivers electricity to customers in United Kingdom, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, and Virginia; delivers natural gas to customers in Kentucky; and generates electricity from power plants in Kentucky. The company's segments are: United Kingdom Regulated, which has regulated electricity distribution operations in United Kingdom; Kentucky Regulated, which is engaged in the regulated generation, transmission, distribution and sale of electricity in Kentucky and Virginia, and the distribution and sale of natural gas in Kentucky; and Pennsylvania Regulated, which delivers electricity in eastern and central Pennsylvania.
Spire is the holding company for Spire Missouri Inc. (Spire Missouri), Spire Alabama Inc. (Spire Alabama), other gas utilities, and gas-related businesses. The company's segments are: Gas Utility, which includes Spire Missouri, a natural gas distribution utility system in Missouri, and Spire Alabama, a public utility engaged in the purchase, retail distribution and sale of natural gas principally in central and northern Alabama; and Gas Marketing, which includes the company's subsidiary, Spire Marketing Inc. that is engaged in the marketing of natural gas and providing energy services to both on-system utility transportation customers and customers outside of the service areas.
WEC Energy Group is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides regulated natural gas and electricity, and nonregulated renewable energy. The company's segments include: Wisconsin, which generates and distributes electric energy and provides retail natural gas distribution service; Illinois, which includes the natural gas utility operations; Electric Transmission, which owns, maintains, monitors, and operates electric transmission systems in Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, and Minnesota; and Non-Utility Energy Infrastructure, which owns and leases generating facilities to its Wisconsin Electric Power Company subsidiary and owns underground natural gas storage facilities in Michigan.
Xcel Energy is a regulated electric and natural gas delivery company which serves customers in mid-western and western states, including portions of Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas and Wisconsin. The company's reportable segments include: regulated electric utility, which generates, transmits and distributes electricity in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Dakota, South Dakota, Colorado, Texas and New Mexico; regulated natural gas utility, which transports, stores and distributes natural gas primarily in portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin, North Dakota, Michigan and Colorado; and other, which includes steam revenue and appliance repair services.
Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.
Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Browse all ResearchPool reportsReport is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.