ANV - Bright Future Expected in the Second Half of 2024
- According to VASEP data, pangasius exports in the first six months of the year reached USD 922 mn (+6% YoY), with June alone reaching USD 174 mn (+22.1%, according to Argomonitor, it is 20%). However, ANV's total pangasius export revenue for the first five months of the year was 40 million USD (equivalent to 1,080 billion VND at an exchange rate of USD/VND 25,500), down 17% YoY due to a 14% YoY decrease in selling price in USD and a 4% YoY decrease in volume.
- For 2024, we forecast revenue to reach 4,580 billion VND (+3% YoY) with exported pangasius volume reaching 62 thousand tons (+12% YoY) and the average selling price decreasing by 8% YoY. Gross margin is expected to improve from 10.2% to 14% due to lower farming costs driven by reduced soybean prices. This supports net profit after tax and minority interests (NPATMI) reaching 200 billion VND (+376% YoY). EPS for 2024 is estimated at 1,502 VND (+374% YoY).
- We are reviewing the valuation basis for ANV due to the need to further observe factors affecting the industry and company outlook. With the estimated 2024 EPS of approximately 1,502 VND/share, the forward P/E for 2024 is 21.8x based on the market price as of July 1, 2024, which is higher than the five-year average (before the negative P/E period as of March 31, 2024) of the company at 17.x.
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