CEE Banks: 2Q20E – in the eye of the cyclone (Komercni Banka, MONETA Money Bank, Erste Bank, PKO BP, Bank Pekao, Santander BP, mBank, ING BSK, Bank Handlowy, Bank Millennium, Alior Bank)
The CE3 banks’ reporting season starts this week, with Bank Millennium first, on 23 July. In this report, we present our 2Q20E previews for both the Polish and Czech banks, as they are the first to report in CEE. Looking at the front and centre of market discussions currently, we get the impression that the markets have calmed down for the time being as NPLs have not risen yet, the hit from low market rates seems to have been digested by the markets already, and the publication of the 2Q and 3Q results should simply be a check on the actual results of this phenomenon, while the quarterly fees seem to have surpassed the 1Q20 bottom. This quarter was marked by the peak of the European lockdown; thus, we might have been in the eye of the cyclone. Currently, the banks are saying that, while the level of activity still presents a drop vs. last year, there is a visible pick-up vs. April-May. We would have seen this as a win for the banks, as our 2Q20E net profit forecasts expect declines of c.50%+ in profits, but all banks (apart from Alior Bank) remaining profitable. However, we believe that this is only the beginning of the profit damage in the banking sector. Only after we see real defaults flowing into sector volumes and the banks’ ROEs bleeding would we see a recovery as a feasible outlook. We expect this to take place in 1H21E. There is some room for positive surprises for our outlook, but this depends largely on the future evolution of the pandemic and the end effects of all the government support programmes.Alior Bank is a universal lending and deposit-taking bank which renders services to individuals, legal persons and other entities which are Polish and foreign persons. Co.'s core activities include maintaining bank accounts, granting loans and advances, issuing banking securities and purchasing and selling foreign currency. Co. also conducts brokerage activities, consulting and financial agency services and renders other financial services.
Bank Handlowy W Warszawie is a Polish bank holding company engaged in a wide range of banking services for individuals and corporate customers in the domestic and foreign markets. Additionally Co. operates in brokerage operations, lease services and investment operations. Customers have access to these services at the branches, ATM's, telephone services and electronic banking services.
Bank Millennium provides various banking products and services to individual clients, small businesses, corporate, and public sector entities in Poland. Co. offers current account, custody account, and escrow account; standard deposits, negotiated deposits, millenet deposits, and automatic overnight deposits; debit and charge cards; funds management; professional cash services; and management of balances of current and auxiliary accounts. Co. also provides current account overdraft facility, real estate loans, revolving credits, working capital loans, investment loans, energy financing facility, sureties, line of guarantees, letters-of-credit, preferential loans, and bid bond guarantees.
Bank Polska Kasa Opieki (the Bank) is a commercial bank providing a range of banking services, mainly in Poland. The segments of the Bank are as follows: Retail banking, which comprises all banking activities related to retail customers and small and micro companies; Private banking, which comprises all banking activities related to the affluent individual customers; Corporate and Investment banking, which comprises all banking activities related to the companies, interbank market, debt securities and other instruments; and Assets and Liabilities Management and other, which is engaged in the supervision and monitoring of fund transfers, and other activities centrally managed.
Erste Group is a financial services provider based in Austria. As of Dec 31 2015, Co.'s total assets amounted to Euro199,743 million and the number of customers was approximately 16.5 million. Co.'s key business is the retail business, covering the entire spectrum from lending, deposit and investment products to current accounts and credit cards. In addition to providing financial services to private individuals, Co.'s core activities also include advisory services and support for corporate clients in financing, investment and access to international capital markets, public sector funding and interbank market operations.
ING Bank Slaski is a bank holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged in providing a range of banking services rendered for individual and institutional clients in line with the scope of services outlined in Co.'s charter. Co. runs operations both in the home currency and in foreign currencies. Co. is also active on the domestic and foreign financial markets. The subsidiary, ING Bank Hipoteczny S.A., also runs banking business, including loans secured with mortgage. Additionally through subsidiaries, Co. operates brokerage services, real estate, leasing of real estate and advisory and acts as a financial intermediary as well as provides other financial services.
Komercni banka is a universal banking group based in the Czech Republic. Co. is engaged in the provision of a range of financial services in retail, corporate and investment banking. Co.'s operating segments include: Retail Banking, the provision of products and services to individuals, such as among others building savings, pension insurance, overdrafts, credit card and personal loans and mortgages; Corporate Banking, the provision of products and services to corporate entities such as foreign currency and derivative products, syndicated and export financing, and guarantee transactions; and Investment Banking, which involves trading in financial instruments.
mBank is a provider of comprehensive corporate banking services in Poland. Co. and its subsidiaries make up the mBank Group which is engaged in offering financial services. Co.'s service offering includes a comprehensive financial offer tailored to the needs of corporate clients, Private Banking clients, and retail clients. The business activities of Co. is conducted in the following business segments: Retail Banking and Corporates and Markets.
Moneta Money Bank as is a Czech Republic-based retail and expanding small and medium enterprises (SME) bank. The Company holds an universal banking licence and provides a range of retail and SME-focused financial products and services. The Company operates through a national distribution network of 229 branches and through alternative distribution channels, such as the internet, its call centre, auto dealers, brokers and approximately 4,700 leasing partners. The Company together with its controlled subsidiaries offers current accounts, savings accounts, term deposits and transactional banking products including payment services and debit cards, consumer loans, credit cards, overdrafts, mortgages and auto loans, auto leases and other complementary products such as bancassurance and sales of investment funds.
PKO Bank Polski is a universal commercial bank offering services to both domestic and foreign retail, corporate and other clients. Co. is licensed to hold foreign exchange and currencies and sell/buy them, as well as perform a full range of foreign exchange services; open and hold bank accounts abroad and to deposit foreign exchange in these accounts. In addition, Co. conducts activities relating to leasing, factoring, electronic settlements via payment cards, as well as renders other financial services. As of Dec 31 2009, Co. had total assets of Zl156,478,685,000 and total deposit of Zl124,628,562,000. Co. operates in the Republic of Poland, Ukraine and Sweden.
Bank Zachodni is a bank seated in Poland. Co. and its subsidiaries provide a range of banking services for individual and business customers and operate in domestic and interbank foreign markets. Additionally, Co. provides also the following services, including intermediation in trading securities, leasing, factoring, asset/ fund management, insurance services, trading in stock and shares of commercial companies, and brokerage activity. Operational activity of Co. and its subsidiaries has been divided into five segments: Retail Banking, Business and Corporate Banking, Global Banking and Markets, ALM (Assets and Liabilities Management) and Centre, as well as Santander Consumer.
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.
Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.
We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.
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