WOOD Flash - Halyk Savings Bank: notes on 4Q21 and the 2022E guidance
Halyk’s 4Q21 results came as no surprise at the bottom line level. That said, the bank announced cautious 2022E guidance which foresees a c.25% decline in net income at the EPS level. At this point, management does not have much visibility, and we believe this is reflected in its 2022E guidance, as well. As far as we understand, the main macro concern is a spike in inflation which may, in turn, affect the consumer and SME businesses adversely. We take it that this guidance resembles more closely a worst-case scenario than a base case. It is still proof that the Russia-Ukraine situation is reverberating across our region, especially in the East. We have a BUY rating on Halyk with a USD 19.6/share PT. The bank trades at 3.0x P/E and 0.7x P/TBV on our 2022E numbers, which are arguably rich now, judging by the cautious guidance.
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.
Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.
We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.
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